Sebastian Lyon's Yogi Berra gold mine bet

Personal Assets star Sebastian Lyon is readying for a year 'alarmingly familiar' to 2011, and has taken a position in gold miner Agnico-Eagle.

Lyon said the profit warning from Tesco, issued in January, highlights the fragility of even the biggest names to stalling economic growth and fears that overly optimistic investors may be caught out.

'The New Year optimism reminds us of that old phrase of the famous baseball coach Yogi Berra: "it's deja vu all over again".  The start of 2012 feels alarmingly familiar and that's because it is - 2010 and 2011 began in similar ways with over optimism and renewed faith that policymakers would address the threats of excessive sovereign credit,' Lyon explained.

'As we enter 2012, there is renewed expectation of economic recovery.  This may be yet another triumph of hope over experience.  Our fear at the start of 2012 is that history will repeat itself.'

Lyon (pictured) has positioned his £438 million investment company accordingly, and over the three months to 31 January has built a position in Agnico-Eagle, a gold miner which operates in Canada, Finland and Mexico, and which in the past high valuation had proved a barrier to entry.

'Until recently [Agnico-Eagle] was the darling of the sector, with strong production growth forecasts for the next five years. The initial appeal to us was the location of its assets in territories that traditionally respect the rights of private property ownership. However, a high valuation had always put us off.  2011 was an annus horribilis  for Agnico.  It has suffered material interruptions to production at two of its six operating mines, which has led to the shares more than halving from their 2011 peak,' Lyon said.

The share price has now recovered and is back at 2007 levels, a time when the miner was producing only just a fifth of the gold it does now.

Citywire Selection's Lyon is regarded a skilled manager particularly during defensive times.  He currently has some 13% of Personal Assets exposed to gold bullion, which is perceived as a safe haven during times of uncertainty and market turmoil.

Over the 12 months since February 2011 Lyon has returned 14.94% ordinary share net asset value (NAV) growth, versus -0.71% by its FTSE World benchmark.  At the end of yesterday's session his vehicle traded at a 1.3% premium and at £34.39p per share. Across his complete funds record Lyon has returned 39.4% versus 28% by his typical peer.