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UK economy grows faster than expected with 0.8% rise
The pound is rising as more Bank of England stimulus now looks unlikely after better than expected growth in the third quarter.
Markets
The UK economy grew by 0.8% between July and September, more than the 0.4% growth that economists had forecast, although still at a slower pace than the 1.2% growth in the three months to July.
The industrial production and service sectors both grew by 0.6% in the three months to the end of September, while the construction sector grew 4% - its highest rate of growth since 1988.
Gross domestic product increased 2.8% compared to the same period last year, the preliminary data shows.
The pound jumped more than one cent higher after the news to $1.58 and €1.13. The yield on benchmark ten year gilts was 0.08% higher at 3%.
Given the economy grew more than many expected for the second quarter in a row and inflation remains well above target at 3.1% many commentators say the Bank of England's rate-setters may now decide against pumping more money into the economy.
Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said the numbers 'will clearly ease near-term concerns over a possible double-dip.'
He said he now expects GDP this year to be higher than the 1.5% he had originally forecast and said the numbers will 'also probably be enough to deter the MPC from reviving its asset purchases.'
At the last meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee was already split with one voting for more stimulus - known as quantitative easing - and one voting for an increase in interest rates, but increasingly markets had been pricing in more action.
With commentators now convinced there is little chance of more activity from the Bank this year the recent downwards pressure on sterling and on government bonds may wane.
The FTSE 100 was down 41 points, or 0.72%, at 5710 as traders fear that without further stimulus the demand for shares may lose some of its momentum.
The news is a boost for the coalition government which has been facing widespread criticism that it’s swingeing cuts risk pushing the economy back into recession.
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12 comments so far. Why not have your say?
derek farman
Oct 26, 2010 at 10:19
Of course it did ....the Socialist leg irons are now off !
report thisIan
Oct 26, 2010 at 10:57
More than any other factor the knowledge that New Labour no longer has its hands on the UK will boost confidence and stimulate economic recovery.
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 26, 2010 at 11:33
Cant agree with the 1st two comments , the last two quarters growth are a direct consequence of action taken by the last Government to save the economy from depression. No " leg irons" have yet come off and cuts have not yet happened to show through in such figures. The only thing that could affect these figures is sentiment and the slowing down in the latest quarter does reflect consumer confidence easing as the fear of unemployment grows
report thisCrazy Fists
Oct 26, 2010 at 11:56
Quite agree Anon1. However, I do expect the ConDems to take all the credit for the work that Labour were doing to pull us out of recession before they left office. Labour lead us out of recession, my money is on this shower putting us back in it.
report thisChris Powell
Oct 26, 2010 at 12:11
This is good news and demonstrates the timing of the cuts is perfect.
When government's have large deficits extra spending can have little effect on growth because of higher interest rates in the market.
Post election long term rates 4.00% and now 3.00%. NO ED OR BALLS REQUIRED!
The effect this will have on someone buying a new property or remortgaging is far far more important than spending cuts!
However,I think the major realisation from this news is that we might not need QE (even though the BOE is ready) and that GILTS will crash. If I held UK GILTS I would sell ASAP and move into the best long-term inflation edge- Stocks and Shares. Gold having no long-term perfornance (50 years)
report thisDeborah Hyde (Citywire)
Oct 26, 2010 at 12:36
Just a point of fact. The release shows that part of the reason why the number was higher than economists had forecast was because government output defied expectations and rose 0.6 per cent, down only slightly from the 0.7% increase in the second quarter.
report thisIan
Oct 26, 2010 at 12:45
During its 13 years in office New Labour routinely spent more moneythan it raised in tax and plunged the country into debt that future generations will have to pay. More than one million jobs were lost in the private sector on account of crippling rules and regulations that make the UK an undesirable place in which to conduct business. Labour attempted to hide these by the creation of public sector "jobs" that produce nothing and an economic model that was built solely on debt. The resulting downturn was entirely its fault and it will take years to correct.
report thisAnonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 26, 2010 at 13:12
Thank goodness for human nature, if everyone worked hard and earned more than they spent what a boring place this would be...... the name of the game is to try and increase and protect capital from the Goverment's efforts and from the people who spend more than they earn.....
report thisAnonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 26, 2010 at 14:14
Don't know how the city of london is doing, but out there in the real economy I fail to see any of this growth on the streets. Still feels like a dead cat bounce to me fuelled by the last QE programme
report thisJohn Dean
Oct 26, 2010 at 21:36
The economy takes a least 6 months to show any signs of movement after measures taken by "any" government.
The guy from ONS on this mornings BBC News was obviously reading from a prompt sheet, telling us that this recovery is exactly in line with the last two recoveries.
The next quarter may be slowing and the one after that will have VAT @ %20, cuts will be biting, oh well keep watching the news for a bit more bigging up.
Lets think for ourselves -
Why is the news the same on BBC and Sky? and why is the same news repeated every fifteen minutes? does nothing else happen during the day.
report thisjohn_r
Oct 26, 2010 at 21:45
Anonymous 3 - no you won't be feeling any improvement and not for a long time to come. Todays news of an improvement in growth is just the first chink of light in a long road ahead for a very sick patient. The restoration of AAA finacial status for the UK is the second chink and I congratulate the goverment in achieving this milestone. By being recognised as determined to pay down its debts this goverment may have reduced interest payments marginally for the years ahead.
Be under no illusions about the financial devastation reaped upon the uk under labours stewardship. Technically we are bankrupt and are surviving by borrowing record amounts - around £150B per year. To put that into context thats about the cost of building 6000 academy schools every year. They won't be built in Britain but we will have to pay that cost in interest charges and for many years to come.
So I have little sympathy for people who jump up and down complaining " it isn't fair " when we cut out waste. We have all got to suffer pain - and we must all get on with it.
If life was fair then the previous goverment would be in the dock accused of reckless behavior with the Uk's finances. Instead they are free to smirk in the background like some of these anonymous writers having slipped out of all responsibility and left others to sort out the enormous mess they have created.
report thisGodfrey Billy
Oct 26, 2010 at 21:51
Yes it is aboost for the coalition government but the growth had nothing to do with the swingeing cuts announced last week. How can anyone say the present growth was due to the recently announced cuts, Common on be realistic. Let us wait till 2011 onwards and see how the swingeing cuts will affect the growth. The last governments action ia the result of present growth. The last government (or GB) could have been crucified by the coalition, the city etc if the growth has been extremely low or negative.
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