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The government had no choice in the debate over the economy
The coalition government has had little choice but to play the hand it has been dealt: a hand of grim fiscal realities.
Markets
The coalition government has had little choice but to play the hand it has been dealt: a hand of grim fiscal realities.
Conflicting views of the government
The Lib-Con volte-face on state spending – abandoning the spirit of Keynesian interventionism that prevailed during the dark days of the financial crisis – has ignited a ferocious debate, at the heart of which lie divergent views on the role of the government.
Keynesians argue that government spending has a positive multiplier, with every pound of government spending increasing GDP by roughly £1.70. Theoretically, therefore, periods of weakness in private demand should be offset by increases in government spending. But there are limits to such interventionism; as state spending becomes larger and larger, multiplier benefits become smaller and smaller.
With the Treasury’s purse exhausted, and the debt-to-GDP ratio set to climb to 70% by 2012, further intervention also needs funding. Furthermore, today’s interventionists ignore the role of private sector expectations; government spending does not exist in isolation – it usually triggers a strong private-sector feedback loop, with households, investors and corporations all adjusting their spending and investing decisions.
Drop the pump
According to David Ricardo, a classical 18th century economist, there is an ‘equivalence’ of public and private spending that essentially renders the fiscal pump irrelevant; the private sector anticipates that government splurges will be followed by tax increases, so periods of government expansion are offset by increased private savings, and periods of fiscal frugality offset by private spending.
For Ricardo, the fiscal multiplier is essentially zero, and government spending has no impact on economic growth. In recent years, classical economists further argued that the fiscal multiplier on state spending is actually negative, because government behaviour affects the private sector’s expectations – and its confidence.
A smaller government raises confidence; the private sector expects lower future taxes and lower interest rates, both of which work to lower savings and boost asset values, becoming the engine for a sustainable expansion. These classical economists believe that austerity drives can unleash ‘expansionary fiscal contractions’; though seemingly a paradox, these have occurred in recent history, most obviously in Denmark and Ireland in the 1980s.
In both cases, the public sector made a clear commitment to large-scale restructuring, and fiscal consolidation plans were credible, permanent and broad-based, triggering a powerful decline in interest rates and interest rate expectations, boosting asset values and consumption.
However, the economic reality is that the role of the government can be either a Keynesian positive or a Classical negative, depending upon how fiscal plans are executed. The new government has little choice but to play the hand it has been dealt: a hand of grim fiscal realities.
Guy Monson is chief investment officer and managing partner at Sarasin & Partners
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15 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Aug 11, 2010 at 14:47
Very true, but reality will never stop the press getting in the way of a good anti-torey story!
report thisHarry
Aug 11, 2010 at 16:10
Crowding out, expectations of lower taxes, there is no alternative etc. etc.
The same talking points were trotted out in the 1930s. But hey maybe this time right, and if it doesn't work at least we screwed over the poor so it's basically win-win.
report thisPedroKTFC
Aug 11, 2010 at 16:17
What utter rubbish. Had this ragbag coalition simply kept to the pre-election spending plans, then the deficit would have gone down anyway. With these incredibly stupid cuts, which not surprisingly are making the consumer panic, growth is going to be lower, a lot lower.
In the end it will be hilarious to see that the reduction these numpties achieve will turn out less than had they not changed anything!
report thisHarry
Aug 11, 2010 at 16:19
Also you seem to be confused between the actual reason you're behind the cuts and your cover story (this is pretty standard in the tory blogosphere).
Your headline gives us the cover story - "there is no alternative". But the meat of the article is about the actual reason - you believe in the voodoo economics by which taking money out of the economy creates growth. "Sadly the government has no alternative but to do this thing which is actually a really good idea" doesn't make sense as a narrative, because presumably even if there were an alternative you'd still pick this one.
report thisDavid Rowse
Aug 11, 2010 at 16:40
I thought that as a nation we were very much in debt, which could well have dire effects on the whole nation during the years to come.
Action currently being taken should bring down this debt fairly quickly, other action suggested may or may not have had that result.
If our debts had continued to increase what would have been the final outcome?
Answers on the back of a post card please.
report thisStephen Roach
Aug 11, 2010 at 17:08
I'm just not convinced that throwing hundreds of thousands of public and private sector workers onto the dole is the best way to bring down the country's debt. It's not like they disappear from the books, these people will then need to be paid benefits. Not only that they will cease to pay tax, national insurance, pay into a pension scheme for the future, pay council tax, and if that weren't enough, they may lose their homes and be forced onto housing benefits. Some saving.
report thisPedroKTFC
Aug 11, 2010 at 18:09
Problem is, you need to pay off the debts. Stopping spending doesn't automatically reduce debts, you need taxes to come in.
Your petrol tank doesn't automatically refill when you switch off the engine does it?!
report thisBen Coulthard
Aug 11, 2010 at 18:24
Notice that the election promises about capital gains tax and removing higher rate relief on pension contributions was a pack of lies?
report thisBernard
Aug 11, 2010 at 19:56
Let's takle a closer look at the 30s - so often quoted, as here, as a terrible example of the wrong policy - that of Keynes of course being right.
The peak of 2,995,00 unemployed of Jan 1933 had fallen to 1,276,000 by the autumn of 1937, when 11 million in insured occupations surpassed the figure of 1929. Four million people had been absorbed or reabsorbed into industry, even in coal mining, unemployment had been cut from 40% to 18%. Agriculture flourished; the acreage under wheat rose by 44%, home-produced bacon doubled.
In the year 35-36, while local authorities built 52,000 houses, private builders produced 270,000, half paid for with money advanced by building societies to wage-earning owners, amongst them my father, who on a wage of about £150 a year bought for a little over £600 the house where I grew up; it now commands a price of around 180k. To keep the same ratio a single buyer today would need a salary of £45k
This was a time when many families had one wage-earner, for married women rarely worked outside the home - remember that female teachers, and probably women in other jobs were automatically sacked if they got married.
There were of course many areas where there was hardship and deprivation, just as there are now after 13 years of Labour government. The legend that Britain suffered appallingly under the Great Depression is a convenient quarter-truth mouthed by ill-informed politicians who worship at the shrine of JMK. We fared better than any other country.
report thisWilliam Phillips
Aug 11, 2010 at 20:40
Bernard, you are absolutely correct, The National Government, elected by the biggest landslide ever, was the greatest administration of modern times.
AJP Taylor, a left-wing historian but an honest man, was amongst the first to point out how far from the whole truth the cliched 'lost decade, Hunger Marches, appeasement' image of the Thirties was.
Britain preserved its constitutional democracy when all around were falling into civil war or dictatorship. A dangerously Nazi-admiring king was eased out. Our depression was shallower than others, including America's double dip under Roosevelt. Most people, except in pockets of structural de-industrialisation, became richer. Many social welfare reforms we trace to Attlee were really initiated by Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain, such as holidays with pay and the raising of the school leaving age. Even the average dole claimant was better off in real terms in the 1930s than his fully employed grandfather had been just before the Great War.
Inflation was controlled and the value of sterling maintained-- yet the UK managed to rearm fast enough to deter Hitler in 1940. Churchill's rhetorical defiance would have been hollow without the air defences Chamberlain and Inskip placed in his hands.
Let's hope today's Tory-Liberal coalition governs with as much pragmatic good sense.
report thisJon
Aug 11, 2010 at 21:05
Of course, in the 1930s the UK had a very different economic position in the World. We were a net exporter, and consumption was primarily provided from within.
We are so far away from this, that any lessons from the 30's are irrelevant. The problem now is that if anyone has any net disposable income after essentials, then it tends to leave the country, thus making our position worse!!
So perhaps we should reduce everyon'es incmoe to a level at which they cannot afford to buy foreign goods, or go abroad for a holiday !! :-)
Of course, if we do not reduce our deficit soon, and keep spending, then sterling will dive, inflation will run riot, and we will be in this position in any case !!
report thisBernard
Aug 12, 2010 at 10:43
When Keynes first proposed that spending was the solution to slump he added some provisos:
“Whenever you buy goods you increase employment – though they must be British, home-produced goods, if you are to increase employment in this country.”
It is also forgotten that although he was a committed free-trader, he reluctantly agreed that a tariff barrier was a necessary if temporary expedient to energise the domestic economy. His vivid picture of housewives rushing out to buy sheets and blankets assumed that they were made in the UK. We now have a double problem that he could not have foreseen- cheap foreign goods and cheap foreign labour. The free movement of labour across 27 countries must tend to push wages to the lowest level; how many eastern europeans are working in our service sector at the minimum wage or lower and enjoying benefits unavailable or expensive in their home states? When Cadburys and others close factories here and move the production to Poland or Hungary they are seeking lower wage costs beyond union control. The common currency eases financial problems that arise in siting production in cheap-labour economies in Asia. What happens if and when when China revalues its currency?
report thisBernard
Aug 12, 2010 at 10:53
May I add another point? It's not just a question of paying off national debt, never forget the cost of servicing it - it's the interest bill. When TV commercials offer to solve our debt problems, what they are really saying is ' pay your (increased) interest to us.'
Is anyone with a mole in the Treasury able to tell us the size of the current bill?
report thisjon smith
Aug 12, 2010 at 13:26
there is no doubt that we have problems-we do have choices in how we deal with them and this lot are making choices based on their tory view of how the world should work-ITS A CHOICE!!!!-and if i hear the phrase "were all in this together" again i think i may vomit! We are NOT all in this together-bankers still have bonuses while poorer folk lose their jobs and houses! cameron et al may find they have to buy cheaper caviare-oh yes were all in this together!!!! UNION LEADERS GETTING PAY RISES STICKs IN MY THROAT AS WELL!!!!!
report thisJon
Aug 22, 2010 at 12:00
So Jon - what would you cut to solve the problem - we need constructive criticsim ?
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