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‘Sober decade’ warning ahead of spending cuts
Britain faces a ‘sober decade’ of ‘savings, orderly budgets, and equitable rebalancing’, Bank of England governor Mervyn King warned.
Markets
Britons have been warned to prepare themselves for a ‘sober decade’, one of ‘savings, orderly budgets, and equitable rebalancing’ as the government prepares to launch its package of £83 billion spending cuts.
The warning, from Bank of England governor Mervyn King, came on the eve of today’s Comprehensive Spending Review in which chancellor George Osborne will give details on how some 25% is to be cut from departmental spending.
Only healthcare and international aid are ring-fenced from the worst of the cuts.
There are concerns among some business groups that the cutbacks could push the economy back into recession.
King, speaking to a business audience in the West Midlands last night, spoke of the need to save more in the coming years, even though the immediate concern is to ensure a recovery in demand.
The economy needs rebalancing, he said, which would require a closing of the gap between exports and imports. ‘To achieve a rebalancing we need to sell more to, and buy less from, economies overseas.’
He predicted that more than half a million jobs will probably need to be created in businesses producing to sell overseas. This figure contrasts with the 500,000 or so public sector jobs that are expected to be slashed by today’s review.
King said that the biggest risk to an orderly rebalancing of the UK economy comes from abroad. ‘Efforts to restore world demand are impeded by the scale of the imbalances in trade, which are beginning to grow again.’
Fears over rising trade imbalances have been stoked in recent weeks by attempts by countries to devalue their currencies in order to make their exports more competitive.
King warned that unless a ‘grand bargain’ is struck among the major players in the world economy, countries will resort to trade protectionism. ‘That could, as it did in the 1930s, lead to a disastrous collapse in activity around the world. Every country would suffer ruinous consequences – including our own.’
See Citywire's step-by-step guide to the Spending Review here.
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17 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 20, 2010 at 10:03
Only sober if they introduce a minimum price on booze in supermarkets!
report thisIFA Watcher
Oct 20, 2010 at 10:48
If it rids our society of the cancer of debt and the indolent idiots who live on it, then all the pain will have been worthwhile. But it will only be a matter of time before the big wheel truns full circle and it all happens again. The most significant thing we learn from history is that people do not learn.
report thisRoger Savage
Oct 20, 2010 at 11:06
What does the ineffectual Governor of Quantitative Easing know about anything?
I wonder if those glasses he is wearing used to belong to Mr Magoo, because he certainly cannot see beyond the end of his nose.
Does anyone out there believe this man, if so I would get into your padded cell pronto.
report thisAnonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 20, 2010 at 11:11
Of course it is true that we need to export more - there should be incentives and rewards for exporting companies. It is tough out there on the world markets - I should know, I face them every day in my business ! But until I can find employees who also understand this and are prepared to put the necessary effort in, I shall think twice about employing any more people.
report thisAnonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 20, 2010 at 11:35
Robert get real. You are probably a 'indolent idiot'.
We have had a negative trade balance every month since Blair came to power which cannot carry on.
QE has saved the economy for now without it we would be in a depression and bankrupt right now.
Mervyn King is correct the trouble was he could not stop what he knew was going to happen because of GB.
report thisAnonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 20, 2010 at 11:35
sorry roger
report thisAnonymous 4 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 20, 2010 at 12:08
Successful manufacturing countries operate on two models 1) Cheap Labour (China) 2) Efficient practises requiring minimal labour (Germany/Japan) unfortunately in this country we can do neither do to the minimum wage and the left/unions who believe the whole point of factories is job creation not the production of goods at as low a price as possible. So until that changes we are reliant on the service & the much hated financial sectors for growth (especially as funding for research and development is also up for the chop).
report thisChris B (Slough UK)
Oct 20, 2010 at 12:55
Anyone who thinks there isn't enough money in the system has clearly lost their mind! I couldn't believe that Mr. King came out and said that. We need more QE like we need holes in our heads. The problem is not that there isn't enough money in the system, the problem is that banks won't lend for obvious reasons. Everyone has already realised that if the last lot of QE did not revive the economy then a second lot is another wasted shot in the dark. If you continue with QE3 QE4 etc etc then what is the point of the cuts? This is the makings of a monetary Black Hole which will destroy everybody in the end! Any fool knows you cannot spend your way to prosperity and yet they think the consumer will somehow save the day, even though any savers are paid a pittance in interest. Talk about hypocrisy.
So if we are losing half a million jobs but we need to create a million, that make a net deficit of 1 million jobs. Hardly a small figure, this probably doesn't take into account the extended retirement age, school leavers and the increase in the population either? Many people are also not claiming benefits and so do not show up on the statistics. This means the unemployment situation is actually a lot worse than we have been led to believe. Meanwhile the squeeze on the poorest members of society and race to debase our currencies continues apace. Keep giving billions to the banks, punish the prudent and see what you get, it ain't pretty! You know one of the reasons we are in this mess is because the Chinese are a prudent people, that is one of the reasons why there is such a trade defecit. Is China lowering their interest rates, no quite the opposite.
So lets follow Japans long slow path to nowhere and then wonder why we bothered? Iceland had the right idea, default on your debt. Get it over with then move on. In a couple of years time Iceland will have a flourishing economy whilst we will be spending many many years in the doldrums. A short sharp shock rather than a long slow drawn out and eventual painful death anyway.
I know I sound like a broken record, but how much BullSt is a person supposed to take. It certainly won't be a winter of discontent for the bankers, whilst in many cases poor Tiny Tim will be left to snuff it!
Chance of a Double Dip very high I should think. Volatility remains roller coaster high.
report thisMr Tom
Oct 20, 2010 at 13:33
Only healthcare and international aid.
Health care good, international aid? Get real lets stop thinking of others living off our free loading society and lets start thinking and putting ourselves first at the front of the queue.
report thisRoger Savage
Oct 20, 2010 at 13:44
Well Anonymous 3 you couldn’t get my name right first time round and by the way Quantitative Easing is fool’s way of trying to prop up the economy.
As you obviously agree with it, I would have to take it you are one also. As you are anonymous maybe you are Mr King.
report thisNeil Dowsing
Oct 20, 2010 at 14:21
Anonymous 2
What does your company do and where are you based ?
You want good people !. write to me on neildowsing@hotmail.com. I will send you my CV as I am looking for a new position. I have a good track record. I add value, I am entrepenurial and I make things happen. Myself and my wife have global contacts
Neil
report thisAnonymous 5 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 20, 2010 at 17:58
Why the hell cant we cut back on the "International Aid"? If we're skint why give our tax payers' money away? I asked the govt this question and was told "because we are a caring society". I wonder how many people would willingly give to everyone that we do give to if they were given a free choice? Last time I looked we were sending money to people who would gladly blow us up or cut our throats. errrrrrr
report thisAnonymous 6 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 20, 2010 at 21:32
When the family is in trouble it usually bonds together.
Unfortunately in our ' Disfunctional family of Britain' we have no chance whilst the do-gooders protect the parasites and the trade unions seek to drive up wages as they did in the 70s and eventually assisted in the decline of our industries and the lawyers continue to gorge on the legal aid system and the courts continue to refuse to punish the guilty and protect the victims.
Britain is finished as a powerful economy and respected nation of freedom and justice....the meek may inherit the earth but the taxpaying middle classes will be paying the mortgage.....forever
So endeth the lesson........
report thisLeander
Oct 21, 2010 at 00:33
Defence of the realm is the top priority. If that fails, then all of our plans are laid waste. Yet cut it we have. So why on earth are we increasing foreign aid? Of course, all such money is borrowed simply to give it straight to some African despot! This is a good reminder of why we need a smaller state. Any fool can play fast and loose with someone else's money as the previous Labour regime reminded us yet again.
And talking of giving taxpayers' money to worthless causes, why has the coalition failed to cut funding to the biggest and most unacountable, corrupt quango of them all: the EU
Now is the moment - better off out
report thisJonathan
Oct 21, 2010 at 01:55
I still can't believe what a hapless bunch of financially incompetent idiots the Labour party were/are to get us into such a mess.
report thisNeil Dowsing
Oct 21, 2010 at 09:30
Its interesting
Slightly earlier in my career I used to bid for PFI contracts with the NHS. it was my first contact with the public sector. When I saw how they operated I was truly angry and shocked. I am not very surprised that Cameron has ring-fenced it. He needs it as a political shield to defend himself against what he is doing elsewhere. Believe me, if ever there is a patient that needs surgery it is the NHS. It is the biggest graduate employer in the world and the fourth biggest employer by numbers. Ony the Chinese Red Army, The American armed forces and Indian Railways employ more. That is a fact.
Then there is the ringfencing of 'Foreign Aid'. What is misleading is that its got the word 'Aid' in it . We all know that there is no such thing as a free lunch.....right !
report thisjohn_r
Oct 21, 2010 at 13:14
Jonathan how can you call the labour party financially incompetent. Their exit from goverment was timed to perfection - just as the country was sliding into bankruptcy. Its exactly the same situation and precision timing as the last labour goverment in 1979.
Give the tories 5 years to sort out the mess then Labour will be back on the horizon offering a new dawn.
Beats working for a living, just spend, spend, spend.
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