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Property in 2011: the rich will get richer

Will the property market even out this year? Linton Chiswick explains how the gap between the north and south, rich and poor and old and young looks only set to widen.

Is the property market going to even out this year? Linton Chiswick explains how the gap between the north and south, rich and poor and old and young looks only set to widen.

Like holding hands and singing Auld Lang Syne, reading future property price movements is a bit of a British New Year tradition.

It all felt a little predictable this time around – mild optimism from John Charcol (up 2%), nothing much from Nationwide or Halifax (static market), modest falls predicted by most of the agents, a big drop according perennial property-sceptics Capital Economics (down 10%) – but the bears have gathered following the first major index publication of the year.

Halifax’s December figure– down 1.3% – published a few days ago, was seen as an early lead for the likes of Captial Economics and IHS Global Insight (which predicts a 10% fall from 2010’s peak, or 7% across 2011).

But a new report from estate agents Savills paints a clearer picture than ever of a highly geographically-defined series of markets, across which it’s very hard to generalise.

The north-south divide

The headlines are extraordinary. If you live in the south east of England and own your own home you’re part of a select group of modern-day landed gentry sharing a greater combined wealth than all the property-owners in the Midlands, Yorkshire and the north, and Wales combined.

More than a third of the UK’s housing wealth is located in the south-east. London’s poshest boroughs – Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea, Camden, Islington and Hammersmith & Fulham – represent 30% of the capital’s property wealth, yet less than 15% of its stock.

Kensington & Chelsea alone (86,000 dwellings; £64 billion property value) contains more than twice the combined property value of the (wealthy) city of Bristol (180,000 dwellings; £29 billion) and yet less than half the number of dwellings.

Certainly, combined property value grew in all regions – although at different rates and at different times – during the boom years, and contracted between 2007 and 2009; but with the national picture currently so uneven and the pressures on house prices (the drivers used to predict price movements) during 2011 and 2012 so specific, it seems reasonable to expect vastly different fortunes at different ends of the country.

According to Savills’ chief data-cruncher Lucien Cook, we should expect more of the same, the gap to widen.

A closer look at the Savills data reveals that the lopsided property map doesn’t extend just to house prices, but equity, too. Net equity has doubled during the last decade to £2,900 billion, and equity as a percentage has fallen only slightly, to 70%. But a closer look at who owns what reveals property-owners sharply divided between the vulnerable and the relatively secure.

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16 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Edmond Jackson

Jan 13, 2011 at 12:50

Cumbria may be more inflated though: consider the £1.2 million being asked for a 2-bedroom bungalow with a view of the Langdale Pikes, or £400k for a small converted grange in Borrowdale with a local occupancy restriction.

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Long Gone Expat

Jan 13, 2011 at 13:04

The over-45s hold 83% of the UK’s property wealth; the over-65s, 40%. Skip to the under-35s and the figure is just 5%. And it’s a trend that’s likely to continue.

The above is hardly a surprise is it. Hasnt it always been that the older you get the better off you become, at least for most people? Longer spent working and saving, updating and upgrading your property, a few moves upwards with larger mortgages etc. There has to be some compensation for getting older and something to look forward to and work towards surely.

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Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'

Jan 13, 2011 at 14:19

It is elementary, my dear Watson. If you want to be rich in 10 years, buy a house now and then buy another one. .

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r hall

Jan 13, 2011 at 14:38

When you look at the longer term, say 2020, the demographics dramatically mitigate against any more real increases in prices, always driven from below (first time buyers).-only if the govt prints lots more money to give the banks to lend will loans become so freely available again.

Baby boomers who are looking to retire and downsize, with substantial equity removed to live on, had better get on with it asap. Landlords need to consider diversifying their risk.

Traditionally Londoners retired to the South Coast because it was cheaper; by 2020 the'll have to consider Turkey or Sri Lanka!!

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The cynic

Jan 13, 2011 at 14:51

Who on earth would want to live in the South East of England? Traffic's awful, the cost of living is ridiculously high, it's full of useless football teams, full of foreigners and our useless Government is located there! Give me the Northern half of the UK anyday!

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Dislexic Landlord

Jan 13, 2011 at 15:08

Anon

THats what im doing more than one and another one and another

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colin wilson

Jan 13, 2011 at 16:24

The cynic

Spot on comment - a totally different country!

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sutherland shepherd

Jan 13, 2011 at 18:18

Buying property is overrated. Shares perform much better over the long term......... as long as you buy the right ones! I've lived in a tied house all my life in wonderful locations and invested money in the stockmarket. Much more fun than troublesome tenants and property repairs

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Dislexic Landlord

Jan 13, 2011 at 20:32

FAO Sutherland Shepard

I am really intrested in you comments about shares

Ive bought Shares and have done ok from them

The main differance I can see between buying property and investing in shares is you need to have capital in the bank to buy shares

When you Buy property You borrow 75% of the costs and use very little of your own money

The good thing of buying property is you get growth over the long term from the money you have borrowed ie 100% of the capital Value

Its leverage that makes money in Property but I would never borrow more than 50% of my properties Value

Also at present you can make positive cash on property ie after the mortgage and expences a nett sum in the bank

But I do understand your point if you are useing your own earned cash I think in the Long term Shares and dividends would be a better bet

I will start buying shares again when I cant make money on property Its like all things I belive there is a time to buy and a time not to Buy just like shares

Thanks great comment

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allan c

Jan 13, 2011 at 21:28

i am well aware of the above..... its a case of buy property under the asking price improve it and so on to the next..

the banks are stashing money away..this makes no intrest so they increase the rate of return on money they do lend out to cover the amount they are not getting from the stuff in the vaults..

the goverment tell them to hoard it just in case then tell them to lend to businesses ..RIGHT

So let me thing about this one...errrr ... got it ...the bank of england prints billions and give it to the banks who put it in the vaults for a rainy day paying the bank of england millions in intrest to borrow it .

they increasing the mortgage rates loans and credit cards to cover there costs reduceing interest to savers to NIL.

the savers are told its because the mortgage rate is low that we cannot pay any intrest out...????? hands up all who have come across a loan or credit card at 3 or 4 % intrest.....NO !!!!

thought not ...i know the bankers get bonuses..would it be fair if i ask the bank to pay me a loyalty bonus i wonder..!!!

" O DEAR " better get of me soap box..now

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Long Gone Expat

Jan 13, 2011 at 22:36

So let me thing about this one...errrr ... got it ...the bank of england prints billions and give it to the banks who put it in the vaults for a rainy day paying the bank of england millions in intrest to borrow it .

No the banks buy bonds and the like with tier one capital

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chazza

Jan 14, 2011 at 09:42

The cynic: Agreed with all you say about the south-east, except the claim that it is 'full of foreigners'. In my experience, it is (nearly) full of charmless Brits whose emigration would greatly improve the place.

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sutherland shepherd

Jan 14, 2011 at 12:20

FAO Dyslexic landlord

Agree about advantage of borrowing money for a mortgage. If I'd borrowed 100k and spent it on ASOS when they were 3p then I might have been able to buy one of those pads in Knightsbridge.....

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Dislexic Landlord

Jan 14, 2011 at 12:49

FAO Sutherland Shepherd

Oh if only we had Hindsight

Best of luck regards DL

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yorksway

Jan 15, 2011 at 09:42

And why are house prices higher in south-east?: answer - it is more economically successful; and why is that? answer - Gov share of GDP in south east is less than 35%, in the rest of the country it is above 50% and in some areas abouve 60%; and why is that? answer: South-east has a lot of foreigners and immigrants who work instead of claiming benefits - QED

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john brown

Jan 15, 2011 at 20:57

Put your thought to HYR on Aim, might get you a deposit it comes up Gushing..

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