Citywire for Financial Professionals
Stay connected:

Citywire printed articles sponsored by:


View the article online at http://citywire.co.uk/money/article/a411850

Kevin Murphy: Why I doubled my stake in BP

Why the co-manager of the Schroder Income fund believes he has found value in the troubled oil giant

Kevin Murphy: Why I doubled my stake in BP

The first significant change made by Kevin Murphy and Nick Kirrage when they took the reins of the Schroder Income  fund just over a month ago was to increase its weighting to BP from 2% to almost 4%. 

Former managers Ian Lance and Nick Purves had held the oil giant as an underweight due to its prevailing valuation in the £6 to £7 range, but the incoming duo, who share the same deep value investment approach, have been adding on its substantial weakness.

The shares have fallen some 40% since the Gulf of Mexico rig disaster in late April and for Murphy, BP at £3.42p was ‘fundamentally cheap’.

[It is currently trading at £3.33 at midday on 5 July]

Speaking prior to the latest news that BP is seeking strategic buyers to help its funding activities, Murphy told Citywire he was well aware of the downside risk still associated with the stock, which has been forced to suspend its next three dividends, but the fund is set up with a focus on capital growth as well as dividend flow.

The fund tweaked its remit a year ago, to slash the dividend target by 25% with the aim of maximising capital appreciation through continuing to buy stocks at what the duo consider to be low prices.

‘On this fund, dividend is important to unit holders but the most important question for us is: “Is this business cheap?” We always look to analyse the cash flow because it gives a feel for the sustainability of the dividend.’

Fundamentally cheap

Murphy said: ‘BP is a business that is fundamentally cheap now but because of our portfolio construction method it does not warrant a bigger position.

‘At £6.80 a few weeks ago it did not look fair value but now we see roughly 40% upside.’

With the fund restricting its largest holdings to around 5%, Murphy says a chain of positives could see a rise in the share price of the troubled company.

‘If the oil well gets capped, BP goes on a charm offensive or UK politicians get involved on its behalf, then it could see its price move higher again.’

Sign in / register to view full article on one page

18 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Franco

Jul 05, 2010 at 15:57

Why is not any one writing about the liability of the American contractors hired by BP? . I am fed up with the shallow analyses of events we are getting from all directions these days.

report this

d jo

Jul 05, 2010 at 16:10

here here, franco...if i was in control of bp,, i would let the other parties involved in this tragic accident that my lawyers will be chasing them....soon

report this

Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 05, 2010 at 16:12

I totally agree with Franco. I have just returned from a month in the USA. The main topic of all news channels seems to be BP's alleged negligence in the Gulf of Mexico. They seem ignorant or complacent in the isse of who owns the other 35% of the well and the possible faulty well equipment made by a US corporate.

Where is the UK government in supporting BP and why is the issue that BP is a 65% partner in this platform.

To me BP has been totally clean in its dealings with the affected areas of the US which is more than one can say for the oil and gas failure of US corporates.

It seesm a case of the USA through size and muscle can bully any company or nation without recourse.

What happened to our national pride? BP has demonstrated incredible openness but when are UK citizens going to pressure our government and the USA to tell the truth and support BP?

The whole issue disgusts me as a UK citizen that the UK government doesnt take Obama to task!

We've lost a lot of fine young men supporting the USA now lets see them back us!

report this

IainE

Jul 05, 2010 at 16:43

Why is an income fund going after a non dividend paying share -- no matter how attractive it is. These two young men are not running a special situations fund are they. For my money they should be looking for undervalued income bearing stocks.

report this

Sharon Crossland

Jul 05, 2010 at 16:45

You won't get anything much from mainstream news channels..I get most of my news on BP via twitter....I also hate to see adverts that promote making money from an ecological disaster that doesn't look like it's going to ease any time soon...

report this

Patricia Lewis

Jul 05, 2010 at 16:57

I fully agree with Franco & Anonymous 1, it is time for Britain to stand up for its honour instead of kowtoing to obama.

I was happy when he became president but he has gone down in my book for his constant bashing of BP, why can't he be honest and say that his fellow americans are also involved in this catastrophe

report this

Chris B (Slough UK)

Jul 05, 2010 at 17:01

It is an interesting point why Halliburton and Transocean appear to be sharing none of the blame? Halliburton is also a very wealthy company; surely their money would be welcomed too? Perhaps because these companies are American they 'don't' factor into the equation? I question whether this really was an accident or a deliberate act designed to tap money from BP? It is curious that a similar accident happened not so long ago when Halliburton's concrete failed in a similar manner. Also curious that the Halliburton crew were all safely getting away from the 'accident', whilst others were apparently left in a position where they would most likely die. The US government has BP on the hook for as many Billions as they say so. The costs of litigation could be endless and astronomical. Its one thing to buy when blood is running in the streets, its another when the blood is gushing from the company you are thinking of buying! At a time when the US government is desperate for funds, it seems all too convenient that one of the biggest money makers in the world should fall victim to a supposed accident that should never have happened. Why is BP not even attempting to off-load some of the blame? If this had been one of the small young oil companies, there wouldn't be any money for the US government to grab! Then what would they have done, swept it under the carpet?

report this

Alfie67

Jul 05, 2010 at 17:09

I think its disgraceful how Obama has lashed into BP with the slant on 'British' which is factually incorrect anyway, but particularly as over the last 18 months the whole world has had to carry the burden of US toxic debts bundled into A rated investments. This 'special relationship' with the US has gone from bad to worse - I recall an old Spitting Image sketch of Ronald Reagan & Maggie Thatcher where Ronnie comments "Shame its only her country Im screwing" - nuff said I reckon.

report this

Hawthorn Dweller

Jul 05, 2010 at 17:41

As a matter of general interest, is there any way of confirming independently that the Schroder Income Fund has actually increased its stake in BP?

report this

Anonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 05, 2010 at 21:08

cadbury's usa owned tat&lyle sugar usa owned id bp the next brit household name to become usa owned

report this

michael coxson

Jul 05, 2010 at 21:51

Mnnn now lets see who in halliburton was connected to the last US gov ?????............... ONE BIG CESS PIT........

report this

Anonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 05, 2010 at 23:00

BP stands for "bhopal Poisoners" ie the American Company Union Carbide, when 15,000 local people were poisoned-how much compensation did they receive from Uncle Sam?-peanuts.how long did it take to receive? many years.

Good old American justice.

report this

Jon

Jul 06, 2010 at 00:03

I think that one has to accept that the USA is full of loudmouths and grubbing lawyers. In a country where a large proportion of the population does not accept evolution or global warming, and where creationists thrive it is obvious that there is no understanding of scientific evidence and evaluation - just a state of denial and popular mob behaviour.

We are lucky in that our educational system taught many of us to think for ourselves and to minimize prejudice. But then our schools have lost much of this approach in favour of jumping through hoops so perhaps we are going the same way !

Apologies to those few enlightened Americans !!

report this

Sharon Crossland

Jul 06, 2010 at 08:05

No mainstream news on our TV channels? fr66ajc retweets some interesting (and often scary) stuff about BP.....

report this

john sealey

Jul 06, 2010 at 08:44

I agree that the shares are a 'buy' at less than 350 pence. Rhetoric from the US administration has eased, Cameron appears to have established a good relationship with Obama and talked to him like a Dutch uncle, and the relief well programme is well ahead of schedule. The most likely 'worst' scenario is that Exxon or the Chinese will purchase large chunks of BP, memories will fade, and litigation will drag on for decades ( all positive for shareholder value ).

report this

Anonymous 4 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 06, 2010 at 11:09

I agree with IainE above who questions why the managers of an income fund should be buying a stock where the prospects of a dividend in the near term are nil. It is irresponsible, in my opinion!

report this

OSPREY

Jul 06, 2010 at 14:09

IanE is spot on. The Schroder fund management is taking on a risk which, in my view, is not in their mandate. I am redeeming my holding. Markets are currently volatile enough without the gambling instincts of a couple of day traders to add to the mix!

report this

David Gunton

Jul 08, 2010 at 13:36

The whole world is run on mob instinct. Everyone knew that lending and borrowing were out of control many years before the crash, but everyone just jumped on the bandwagon, got more and more credit cards, saw their houses as a magical money pot instead of a home, and the lenders just went mad, lending any old amount to anyone who filled in some lies about their status on a form. Fora short time I employed a labourer who was illiterate, uneducated, a drunk and drug addict. He had £30,000 worth of credit card debt. He will never ever be able to pay it off and has no intentions of ever trying to do so. BP was brought low by the bad, possibly even criminally negligent or careless decisions of just a few relatively low level managers. The Bhopal disaster was similarly a result of poor quality, low level, management. These sorts of disasters are going to become commonplace as companies get to be larger and larger, more technical and delve into increasingly dangerous processes. The Flixborough explosion was due to poor maintenance of a rainwater gutter, sloppy practice in transporting molten steel in open topped containers the two combined with the unhappy coincidence of a rainstorm. Wake up world and smell the burning coffee!

report this

leave a comment

Please sign in here or register here to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

Sorry, this link is not
quite ready yet