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Is BP too big to fail?

As the latest news filters through that BP is to create an escrow fund of at least $20 billion to deal with burgeoning litigation claims, some believe the oil giant is simply too big to fail.

Is BP too big to fail?

As the latest news filters through that BP is to create an escrow fund of at least $20 billion to deal with burgeoning litigation claims, and will suspend its next dividend,  BP's stock has probably never been lower.

Shares in BP closed on Wednesday evening on a multi-year low of 342p, a decline of 44% relative to the FTSE All Share over the last 12 months but after the company's first proper update since the accident in late April, Brewin Dolphin argues that there are some reasons for optimism.

Brewins equity analyst Iain Armstrong thinks that if the firm was not being treated as a political football in the US, fears that future contract losses and possible asset seizures could bring about its extinction would be almost 'laughable.'

Armstrong thinks BP should be able to come out stronger from the Deepwater Horizon tragedy over the longer term and that due to the incessant negative newsflow, the market is overlooking its financial strength and hugely cash generative operating model.

He says there are five key messages from the firm's first proper update since the tragedy in late April.

First, is the fact that the board is giving beleaguered chief executive Tony Hayward its full backing to deal with the aftermath of the disaster.

Second, that BP has deferred any decision on paying its dividend until its second quarter results at the end of July.

Balance Sheet Strength

The third is that BP can afford to pay this year's expected clean up costs out of the $5 billion in cash sitting on its balance sheet without having to resort to additional debt, while its cash flow remains extremely strong with oil  remaining above the break-even level of $60 per barrel.

The fourth is that BP's potential liabilities could be limited following an initial report sent to the US government which categorises seven points of failure.

This report includes problems with the drilling equipment and three wrongly diagnosed pressure tests which may point some of the blame at other US companies linked to the well.

The fifth factor is that the experienced former head of TNK-BP, Bob Dudley, has been put in charge of the task force which will orchestrate the long term response to the disaster.

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11 comments so far. Why not have your say?

roy dibden

Jun 17, 2010 at 10:05

Is it in the interest of BP to attack those American companies who provided the services on the doomed rig?

President Obama needs little bit of his own medicine, he looks more and more like a one term President.

Not what the world needed.

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Adam

Jun 17, 2010 at 15:00

Wonder when Union Carbide will be making their contribution to the Indian equivalent.

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Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'

Jun 17, 2010 at 15:36

Bp too big to fail Thats a good one Heard that about General Motors Fannie Mae and Lehman Bros When I saw the heading I thought Upppssss thats BP down the drain hahhahha

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Peter Buckley

Jun 17, 2010 at 16:17

Obama needs to look in his own backyard before making inane political comments. How abour Bhopal, Iraq, Piper Alpha the list is endless.

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Jaygor

Jun 17, 2010 at 16:23

When Carl Henric talked about not paying out BP dividend, BP setting aside $20bln for compensation plus more, to help the 'small people' who suffered from the oil spill, while standing outside the West Wing , it makes me wonder which planet he lives on.

I am just as much angry of the injustice done by Union Carbide and how they got away with it but sadly we need to keep BP in one piece as much as we need to keep US and UK economies in one piece, any failure will surely create even more numbers of Heric's 'small peoples'. Perhaps the only pressure releasing is oil and we could call that BP's version Quantitative Easing.

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Tony Peterson

Jun 17, 2010 at 17:35

Why are Cameron and the Treasury select committee not summoning the US ratings agencies that gave glowing investment grades to toxic packages of CDOs, based on missold American mortgages? Why isn't the UK government forcing them to set up an independently managed escrow fund to compensate those British shareholders whose bank holdings were wiped out or almost wiped out by this American ploy to export rotting debt packages?

Sauce for the goose and none for the gander? Then we should be out of Afghanistan now and let our special relations look after the oil pipeline themselves.

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Roy K

Jun 17, 2010 at 17:38

I'm afraid this is the American way. You can never get justice from America. Some years ago in Suffolk, a young teenage couple who were walking along a road were knocked down and killed by a drunken American airman. He never stood trial. The USAF had him on the next plane home, to make sure he avoided justice. No one gets justice from America, don't expect it or you will be disappointed.

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emily

Jun 17, 2010 at 23:38

How British is British Petroleum could I just ask?.

From what I read it should really be Iranian Petroleum - it became British in slightly doubtful circumstances.

Its largest shareholder I read tonight is J P Morgan. Hardly British.

Goldman Sachs sold off 44% of their holdings very conveniently.

Again new reports put them right in the firing line for insider trading.

Apparently there is a little 'economical' truthfulness going on. Was the trouble obvious much earlier than is admitted? - when Goldman, in fact, divested and the CEO of BP off loaded a third of his stock holding.

There is more murk in this business than that floating in the gulf of Mexico.

Seems to me that at the moment we haven't got, perhaps, even half the sordid and scary picture.

Looking at the plight of the animals suffering in this appalling event, and considering the plight of the ordinary American who is being forced out from work and maybe even home, I cannot condone BP in any possible way. They have been negligent, cost cutting and greedy - be they British or anything else.

I really would prefer not to identify with or to own a national relationship with such an unethical business, thanks.

Slanging off Americans for much the same sort of corporate wrongdoing achieves very little.

Two wrongs do not make a right.

Slang off these corporations in general with their ruthless disregard for man, animal or nature, pursuing their billion quid profits with utter unfettered greed and I am with you 100%.

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Anonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'

Jun 18, 2010 at 16:21

I think BP derseves the Bashing they almost distroyed the livelyhood of millions. Obama is doing a great Job I and he will be reelected.

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Anonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'

Jun 19, 2010 at 09:46

Obama's slow action to the oil spill disaster, is equally to be blamed as BP is. 5 weeks passed, he has yet to have any organized cleaning or plugging efforts. He had been more eager to waving his fingers, trashing BP, than actually leading the country out of this disaster. Granted, BP's at fault when this happened. But BP alone can't solve disaster of this magnitude, it desperately needs the government's help. This is Obama's Katrina, among other things and he won't be re-elected.

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CJ-49

Jun 21, 2010 at 11:35

"Brewins equity analyst Iain Armstrong thinks that if the firm was not being treated as a political football in the US, fears that future contract losses and possible asset seizures could bring about its extinction would be almost 'laughable.'"

Whats 'laughable' and ridiculous is this poor defense job of BP. Did you not manage to sell off your BP holdings in time, then? Sorry mate but I'm afraid you are stuck with a criminal entity about to get their just deserts. Don't worry jobs will not be lost. Other companies will buy their assets and re-employ the staff. Actually more staff will be employed to make such drilling safer. Cameron is displaying some excellence by maintaining a hands off approach. Finally, .. feel sad for those living on the Gulf Coast, they didn't deserve this .. even if a lot of them are Republicans.

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