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Inflation remains at 3.1%

Higher air fares and rising clothing and food costs meant prices rose 3.1% again in the year to August adding to worries that too little is being done to rein in inflation. 

Inflation remains at 3.1%

Consumer price inflation remained well above the 2% government target in the year to August with higher air fares, rising clothing costs and food price increases all combining to keep inflation unchanged at 3.1%.

Economists and the Bank of England had been hoping inflation would continue to fall back from April’s high of 3.7%.

In the year to August, retail price inflation - which includes mortgage costs and is used for salary negotiations - edged lower to 4.7% from 4.8% in July.

With inflation still well above its 2% target the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and the Monetary Policy Committee members will face new criticism after stating inflation will continue to fall this year.

But most agree the committee will stand firm and leave rates at current record low levels well into next year, convinced that austerity measures and rising unemployment will eventually begin to pull prices lower and bring inflation back towards the target by the end of 2011.

Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight, said today's news may disappoint the Bank of England rate-setters but is unlikely to have a significant impact on the bank's view that underlying inflationary pressures will gradually wane over the coming months.

'It still seems probable that the Monetary Policy Committee will hold off from raising interest rates for some considerable time to come,' he said.

He said he did not expect the Bank to lift rates until the last few months of 2011 and did not rule out interest rates remaining at 0.5% until 2012.

The Office of National Statistics data showed air transport fares rose by 16.1% between July and August this year, with long haul and European routes responsible for the surge. Clothing and footwear prices rose at their fastest pace since 2001, up 2.8%.

Food prices also rose, up 1.2% between July and August with higher bread and cereal prices bumped up by the wheat crisis in Russia.

9 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Chuck

Sep 14, 2010 at 13:05

Again, inflation has not come down. I don't know how this will not lead to entrenched inflation expectations. Inflation has been riding high for 17+ months, yet employers are asking people to take real and nominal paycuts?!? No wonder everyone is balloting for strike action.

If they don't receive them now, just wait for the future when the economy has recovered. People won't forget that their pay needs to be adjusted for 5 years of no pay rises, and then ongoing inflation (i.e the house price explosion due to inflation/fear/lack of moral hazard.

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Altogether now

Sep 14, 2010 at 13:34

I always understood that the BOE remit was to control inflation via interest rates. They are singularly failing to do that. Presumably there is political pressure being applied to try to prevent the economy sliding into recession but also to inflate our way out of debt. I guess only future autobiographies will supply the truth of the matter.

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joe stalin

Sep 14, 2010 at 13:42

A combination of past Government policy on fuel prices etc and a failure to reign in commodity speculation.

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JT

Sep 14, 2010 at 14:03

I didn't realise that air fairs were included in an 'average basket of goods'... not on my usual shopping list

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Chris B (Slough UK)

Sep 14, 2010 at 14:13

We are the damned! Labour spent the money to prop-up Public sector jobs, whacky projects and 2 false wars. Then they take money that neither existed nor belonged to them to bail out the failed banks, pushing the debt onto the people. Now to repair the damage done by our own government, burgeoning taxes are coming in thick and fast, all sort of benefits are being cut. Hospices closing, jobs being slashed and prices rising. We return rapidly to the dark days of Thatcherism. Whilst the banks pay prudent savers practically nothing, their employees get vast bonuses. The people of this country not only have to repay a debt that should never have been theirs in the first place, but they will pay for it many times over. We will all pay through the loss of jobs (and a government that will hound the unemployed whilst slashing benefits). Through inflation that will reduce many to relative poverty. Meanwhile the banks and government are sitting pretty on the piles of cash they hoard. There are dark ahead indeed and if you believe we won't see a return to recession you are deluded. But then we will probably be deluded by our government anyway!

The natural solution to the whole problem is simply to redefine words like Recession and Depression, to something like Soft Recovery and Steady Recovery. Thereby we do not re-enter Recession, but are simply entering a period of Soft Recovery. There ...all fear is gone and the people are none the wiser aaahahahaaaa. Perhaps the term 'Interest Rate' could be reworded as well, so that it is more the fault of the saver, something like - None Debtors Bonus rate of 0.5%, or NDB for short. Giving it an acronym would further remove any meaning to it.

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electrophotic

Sep 14, 2010 at 17:40

Now we can see why NS&I RPI-linked bonds were pulled. Perhaps the "Economists and the Bank of England" would like to stick their necks out and forecast exactly which goods/services they think will help pull the RPI back to 2%. My bet is they will just carry on hoping.

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Hesi

Sep 14, 2010 at 17:54

How long can you continue to miss a target (inflation) and continue to regard it as credible. If students were given upteen attempts to meet the grade what would it say about the value of the end qualification. I suspect the Governor's letters are not worth the paper they are written on and by now are probably a cut and paste job with the date changed monthly.

B of E independence is a complete sham. The agreed policy as dictated by Govt (labour or coalition) is to inflate our way of debt with dire consequences for those without bargaining power. The B of E is simply an accessory to the conspiracy.

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Jane

Sep 14, 2010 at 20:28

"Every country gets the Government it deserves" simple if you voted Labour under Harold Wilson you got devaluation of sterling and 90% tax rates. Under James Callaghan he called in the International Monetary Fund to save us. And now the Blair /Brown mess. It's very simple - don't vote Labour

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Alan Morrice

Sep 15, 2010 at 14:19

Chris B,

How can you equate 'burgeoning taxes' with Thatcherism?

Try to use your brain and memory. Before 'Thatcherism' basic rate income tax was levied at about 32% compared to 20% now - and no, it wasn't Labour which cut it. Gordon Brown would have loved to have increased income tax only he was terrified of the political furore this would have caused. Instead, bit-by-bit he increased National Insurance rates and thresholds, income tax increases by another name.

Drop some of your idealogical baggage and try remembering (and thinking). Alternatively keep the said baggage and at least try to think.

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