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How do savers beat inflation now?

The surprise withdrawal of all National Savings & Investments savings certificates has left savers scratching around for a safe haven for their money which will show a real rate of return.

The surprise withdrawal of all National Savings & Investments’ savings certificates - including the Index Linked issues which were the one secure investment guaranteed to show a return above the rate of inflation - has left savers scratching around for a safe haven for their money which will show a real rate of return.

The cynics will point to this move as proof that the government intends to inflate its massive debt away - which will be very damaging for savers. 

The government is well aware that RPI  inflation, to which Index Linked National Savings Certificates were linked, will see a sharp rise in 2011 when VAT is raised by 2.5% to 20% and is clearly heading off the expense of RPI linking for all savings and benefits - as witnessed by its recent announcement of a switch to CPI linking for pensions.  It is also concerned about the difficulties the banks and building societies are experiencing in raising retail funds to lend to mortgage borrowers and small businesses.

A New Savings Certificate Issue?

The move is all the more surprising because NS&I confirms that it has never withdrawn all savings certificates before without announcing replacements. So the big question is, should savers hang on and hope that there is a new issue - perhaps linked to the generally lower Consumer Prices Index which seems to be the government’s preferred benchmark?  ‘I can say that savings certificates will be reinstated but I cannot say whether that will be within weeks or months,’ said a spokesman for NS&I. 

Keith Churchouse of Churchouse Financial Planning believes, ‘We may well see a new issue linked to CPI which seems to be the way the government wants things to go.’ This will not be such a good deal as CPI has regularly been an average of 1.7% a year below RPI.  

Existing Investors

There are currently 587,000 holders of NS&I index-linked savings certificates, and 866,000 have fixed-interest savings certificates. Existing investors in savings certificates will be able to roll over their funds on the same terms as the existing issues, rather than accept the abysmal returns offered on ‘general extension’ rates usually paid on maturing certificates. 

They can also reinvest into any of the savings certificate terms and issues, regardless of which savings certificate they currently hold. But there is no new investment.

The majority of investors will have bought savings certificates because they are risk averse and want to preserve their capital.  For many the best course of action will be to put money on deposit rather than risk it in the gilt, corporate bond or equity markets.

Index-Linked Gilts as an alternative

Index-linked gilts or government bonds, which also show a return linked to the rate of RPI inflation, are not the same animal at all as index linked savings certificates. The bonds are traded on the stock market and unless you are prepared to hold them to maturity, there is no guarantee of getting your money back. The price in the market goes up and down according to professional investors’ view of where inflation is going and what interest rate comparable investments are paying. 

Index-linked gilts are all currently showing either negative returns or very low yields as pension funds have been snapping them up for some time now and are happy to sit on them for twenty years or more to maturity. But index-linked gilts do have the advantage that both the interest payments on the debt and the repayment value rise and fall in line with inflation. They are also capital gains tax free.  However, should inflation fall, the value of the bonds will fall in line so your capital is not safe.

Rob Pemberton, investment director at wealth manager HFM Columbus, warns that there is a danger that investors take too simplistic a view as to their worth as an inflation hedge - and see them as a ‘no lose investment’.

‘There is a common misconception that the gilt will return RPI plus its coupon (normally 2.5%) but this is generally not true. This would only be true if the bond was bought at par and held to maturity.’   

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19 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 20, 2010 at 16:01

This is part of the governments' plans: everyone with savings going to have their wealth devalued amidst high inflation.

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Wise Woman

Jul 20, 2010 at 16:10

The Government is doing its best to stop people from saving. They obviously just want to artificially pump up the economy with even more debt.

Deja vu, anyone?

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Anonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 20, 2010 at 16:29

Wise Woman = no such thing

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SP

Jul 20, 2010 at 16:38

If investors refuse to look outside the box when it comes to investing then they will never find opportunity; it's the typical blinkered approach people take to investing. Is there such thing as a safe haven.....

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Anonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 20, 2010 at 16:46

The message is clear - unless you have to (house deposit etc) do not save in the present environment - spend and enjoy especially before the VAT rise.

The danger is that people will get sucked into alternative real investments which are currently at a premium. An example of this is the classic car market. Some of the junk on offer at amazing prices defies belief. A bit of inflation could be a good thing for savers providing the interest rates match.

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Douglas

Jul 20, 2010 at 17:48

Ms Bourke "How do savers beat inflation now". A very clear picture on what the problems are, and what they are going to be, but not a word to answer the headline.

The standard never changes.

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Anonymous 4 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 20, 2010 at 17:48

well the last time classic cars were selling like they are today was in the early 90s, then every twat who knew what he liked was buying then like in the Modern art market, well shares and houses were no good so........

a few years latter people no longer talked about it in pubs or auction houses.

In the USA they even have auction programs on TV just for Vintage Cars.

Well they got to loose it somewhere aint they eh.

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george_the_third

Jul 20, 2010 at 17:51

Presumably National Savings is part of the National Debt, just as are gilts. So a government dedicated to reducing the national debt is simply doing what it said it would do.

None of which is any consolation to savers like myself, but at least it makes sense.

At least bank interest isn't like it was when Harold Wilson let inflation rip out of control and we were getting 12-14% on savings accounts to cope with inflation of over 20%. The Tories are bad, but not that bad!

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Anonymous 5 needed this 'off the record'

Jul 20, 2010 at 20:09

I thought investing in shares was supposed to be a hedge against inflation. Presumably we should choose companies that can increase there prices in line with inflation.

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mark gordon

Jul 21, 2010 at 06:33

It might be bad for savers but it must be good for a nation of seriously indebted souls. Nothing like a spot of inflation to shrink that huge scary mortgage. 5 to 10 years of decent inflation and you will be able to stick it on your credit card. Just one caveat, you better hang on to your job and make sure your pay rises keep up with the inflation rate. Not always that easy.

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Arborbridge

Jul 21, 2010 at 09:18

Mark Gordon's point is all very well for those of working age, but those retired (many of whom like myself have never been seriously indebted) are not in such a happy position. Savings and retirement incomes are being eroded to pay for the recklessness of other parties. The change from RPI to CPI (if it happens, and it will) at NSandI just means they borrow my money and pay me back in devalued currency. I would not even be treading water, but sinking - it would be, in all but name, robbery.

By the way, Anonymous 1's comment is quite unaccurate, unecessary and out of place.

Arb.

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Roy Oswald

Jul 21, 2010 at 09:31

Savers shop around and get as good a deal as you can - these will be tough times for many of us but complaining will not improve the situation. At least 3% interest should be possible and could tide you over until things improve.

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Mark Lawrence

Jul 21, 2010 at 13:01

In the late 1960s and in the 1970s when inflation last let rip in the UK, people on a fixed income (like pensioners or public sector workers subject to pay restarint) had no industrial muscle to guarantee payrises to keep up with inflation. they lost out massively as prices shot up and pensions, savings, state benefits and pay did not keep up with inflation. Only those in industries and occupations with a strong trade union presence were able to force pay rises out of employers and the government.

Thirty years later the demographic makeup of the UK today is very different: there are many more pensioners, lots of whom are on fixed incomes as before. Can the Con-Lib governement afford politically to alienate such a large swathe of the electorate by destroying savings as a result of inflating their way out of the debt crisis ?

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Unruly Oldgit

Jul 21, 2010 at 15:25

Actually, Anonymous 1's comments are accurate, necessary and moderate. [This doesn't apply to his/her use of the apostrophe].

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Arborbridge

Jul 21, 2010 at 17:37

Unruly Oldgit,

Sorry, you're correct. I meant Anonymous 2!

Arb

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David Dry

Jul 21, 2010 at 19:54

"The government is concerned that banks and building societies are experiencing difficulties in raising funds for mortgages and small businesses!!!"

Do me a favour!! Does it think Joe Public is so daft he will invest at the current rates which commit him to about a 3% loss on his capital - whether you use RPI or CPI ?

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Denis Bourke

Jul 25, 2010 at 11:28

I am always fascinated by economists' dichotomy of consumption v savings. Savings is consumption of an investmnent product. Some of these products improve in value over time, some tank, and some just wither away. We need to evaluate what we 'spend' on - goods&services, investment, or debt reduction.

Are the people with NS&I still holding significant debt on credit cards?

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Harry Pearson

Aug 06, 2010 at 17:15

Does anyone out there seriously think that politicians will convert their talk about cutting state costs such as inflation proof salaries and pensions into actions ? The have and indeed will always take the easy way out via inflation. Half a dozen years of inflation around 5% will do wonders to their debt pile.

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Anonymous 6 needed this 'off the record'

Aug 18, 2010 at 11:16

to beat inflation try googlng zopa .risky but hey faint heart and all that.

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