House prices see biggest rise in 10 years

What do "Asking Prices" really tell us?

I'd like..... I 'd settle for.... I get ........

......anything to do with the rush to complete before the stamp duty holiday for first time buyers ends?!!

The UK economy is getting back on track: Houseprices are rising through the efforts of the hardworking and we (the owner occupiers being ~65% of the population) are all getting richer as a result.

No probably more to do with rightmove pricing itself out of the lower end of the online agnecy market.

The key here is.............

ASKING PRICE

Silly people!

So what is supporting these amazing figures?

Increased lending by the Banks? No

Lower unemployment? No

Growth? No

Salary increases? No

End of the Eurozone crisis? No

End of SDLT holiday? Yes

Blind optimism? Yes

You can ask what you like for a house but the crunch point is how much will a buyer pay (and how much their lender's valuer will swallow).

A lot of this new stock isn't going to sell at inflated prices so look out for some pretty miserable statistics from April onwards

So what is supporting these amazing figures?

Lack of Stock? Yes

Lack of increased supply? Yes (Planning laws and House Builders limiting supply)

Government intervention? Yes (FirstBuy, Unemployment SMI, etc)

Central Bank Support? Yes (300year low interest rates with inflation at a decade high)

Flight to Quality Asset? Yes (Libyans, Greeks, Portuguese, Saudis, etc; all using UK/London property as a store of wealth)

Sterling Devaluation? Yes (Foreign buyers i.e. the Chinese can buy cheap property since it has fallen 30%+ in currency terms)

Increase Rental Demand? Yes (more and more Buy 2 Let mortgages being granted recently)

UK Collective Obsession: Yes (Everyone in the UK knows house prices only go up, and the BoE and Government is doing everything to prove this is the case - no moral hazard.)

Everyone on here seems to have dismissed this data just because it is asking price. Where does asking price come from? It comes from a Sales Agent coming round (anyone with any sense would have at least a couple of opinions). Now I know Sales Agents have been greedy in the past and lead to some of the issues we have now. But as it is now a buyers market, Agents need to be more realistic, so they can get the Sale and get that commission they are desperately after……

I agree that’s not the price the property sells at, but from my memory and previous reports the gap between asking and selling is fairly stable at the moment. Also time a property is on the market is coming down.

In my personal opinion this just shows the overall houses trend is fairly stable and as its been the same story for the last year or so, its fairly stable and will be, unless some thing drastic happens, like England being down graded.

Rightmove are talking up the the situation as far as I can see. Like others have already posted... "Asking Prices" mean nothing at all. The Land Registry has the truth... i.e. the selling prices. This seems to be a different story according to latest figures.

Malcolm Dawson, Chief Executive of Land Registry said:

"This data alongside the information which informs our House Price Index can be used to both examine the market but also to inform the public.

"The potential for how information can be used (and re-used) is considerable. As a member of the new Public Data Group, we firmly believe that this dataset and the free release of our price paid information in March will help support transparency and the Government’s economic growth agenda."

From March 2012, monthly Land Registry Price Paid information showing all residential property sales in England and Wales at address level will be published as part of the Market Trend Data. This will be downloadable for re-use under the OGL in the same format as the Transaction Data.

The December data from Land Registry's flagship House Price Index shows an annual price decrease of 1.3 per cent which takes the average property value in England and Wales to £160,384. There is no monthly change from November to December.

The only region in England and Wales to experience an increase in its average property value over the last 12 months is London with a movement of 2.8 per cent. The North West experienced the greatest monthly rise with a movement of 1.5 per cent. The North East experienced the greatest annual price fall with a decrease of 7.1 per cent and the most significant monthly price fall with a decrease of 1.9 per cent.

The most up-to-date figures available show that, during October 2011, the number of completed house sales in England and Wales decreased by 6 per cent to 55,309 compared to 58,634 in October 2010. The number of properties sold in England and Wales for over £1 million in October 2011 decreased by 10 per cent to 525 from 582 in October 2010.

For more information go to www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices

Follow us on Twitter @LandRegGov

Region

Monthly change (since November 2011)

Annual change (since December 2010)

Average price (December 2011)

North West

1.5%

-3.4%

£113,204

Wales

0.9%

-3.0%

£117,447

London

0.8%

2.8%

£345,298

East

0.8%

-0.2%

£172,899

East Midlands

0.4%

-1.5%

£123,697

England & Wales

0.0%

-1.3%

£160,384

South East

-0.2%

-0.2%

£206,522

Yorkshire & The Humber

-0.6%

-3.2%

£119,096

South West

-0.9%

-1.5%

£170,504

West Midlands

-1.0%

-3.2%

£129,082

North East

-1.9%

-7.1%

£99,464

Average prices by property type (England and Wales)

December 2011

December 2010

Difference

Detached

£252,118

£256,526

-1.7%

Semi-detached

£153,032

£154,271

-0.8%

Terraced

£121,406

£123,535

-1.7%

Flat/maisonette

£149,026

£151,383

-1.6%

All

£160,384

£162,521

-1.3%

Month

Sales 2010 (England and Wales)

Sales 2009 (England and Wales)

Difference

January

35,864

26,297

36%

February

42,557

27,309

56%

March

51,440

35,565

45%

April

52,305

39,380

33%

May

52,201

45,899

14%

June

62,744

54,815

14%

July

67,497

63,715

6%

August

61,488

58,386

5%

September

57,476

58,563

-2%

October

58,634

65,855

-11%

November

56,305

61,176

-8%

December

56,849

78,582

-28%

Total

655,360

615,542

6%

Month

Sales 2011 (England and Wales)

Sales 2010 (England and Wales)

Difference

January

37,544

35,864

5%

February

39,635

42,557

-7%

March

46,657

51,440

-9%

April

50,606

52,305

-3%

May

48,802

52,201

-7%

June

57,392

62,744

-9%

July

61,912

67,497

-8%

August

63,728

61,488

4%

September

62,106

57,476

8%

October

55,309

58,634

-6%

Dont be fooled!

@ Mike to say asking prices mean nothing at all shows the limited knowledge people have of trend analysis.

Speak to any Business Analysis, everything means something. And to believe the land registry is the whole truth

of the story further strengths my point. The only thing you get from the land registry shows only what a house sells for…

Which only shows the Best Deal for the buyer and Seller (ie meeting somewhere in the middle of offered and asking price)

Which is basically an average and any one who knows maths, if you take an average of an average you get a different answer

then taking the average of the core data….

It does not show how people are reacting, and what people are doing, how they feel the market is and how optimistic they are,

which all play a part in what is happening with House Prices and Sales. Mortgage loans then show the Buyers vision of the market,

and how much they can influence the market. For example lending numbers are low, so therefore less buyers, however Average mortgage

loans show that the Buyers are fairly ok financially, which is propping up the market.

The only way to get a good understanding is map out all the data, understand where it has come from and what its showing, then when you

overlay it all, you then have a TRUE picture of what is happening in the market place. The issue with all the data is London bucking the trend

and increasing the inaccuracy of the data.

Rightmove is only reporting what it is seeing in the market as an overall pictur, nothing more nothing less. And tries to put some suggestion to why the data is the

way it is.

Totally agree some areas of the country, prices are falling quicker then a dropped brick, while in others they are stable, and then London which is going up....

For the record i would love for Prices to come crashing down.....(from a totally selfish point of view)

Looked at two houses recently in one southern city.

One, though adequately maintained, needs substantial work (about £50,000 - worth) to make it adequate within its local market.

Its asking price would overvalue it by a clear 33%. The other one was about 20% overvalued.

So in the current crippled market, even with the Banks still substantially on mortgage strike along with all the other well-rehearsed market constraints, we find that some people are still wildly over-egging their asking prices.

Always take asking prices, from an individual, an agent (including Rightmove), and particularly any major new-builder with a massive pinch of salt.

Valuations are after all notoriously unreliable (and classically, at the extreme, a fertile field for corruption).

Always, at very least check out sold values on a free site like nethouseprices.com for the streets you are looking at before you go anywhere near any kind of seller, or view anything.

Better still if possible also get the considered opinion of a reliable independent professional, you know personally, who has several years thorough understanding of the particular local market you are looking at.

I agree 100%! Also look at upmystreet.com

SG, my concern was the title of this feature "House prices see biggest rise in 10 years", subsequently backed by data provided by RightMove illustrating asking prices.

The House Price Index is derived from selling prices not asking prices.

The article states... Asking prices increased in every region of England and Wales, according to property website Rightmove. At 6.9%, the South East saw the largest increase, followed by the North with a rise of 5.6%.

Prices are also up 1.4% compared with last year, with London boasting the biggest annual rise of 4.3%.

The fact is people believe that their home is worth much more than the realistic price of what it will sell for. My point is that the truth is that the actual sales prices achieved show very different results. On this basis the data provided is incomplete and unbalanced.

The fact is house sales prices continue to fall across the whole of the UK other than London (based on the prices achieved, rather than asked).

Reading the report, the market looks positive and in break out, when it is not.

The first two paragraphs are designed to mislead and with a headline in mind.

Most of Citywire stuff is driven by headlines

Yawn. Zzzzzzzzzz

Praise to Mike Fish for putting some reality into these posts- very informative.

I can tell you that the area that I live in, the North West, is not showing any real signs of improvement in the throughput of houses being sold. It appears to be a market stuck in the doldrums with a lot of heavy discounting of asking prices to try to get things moving. If you live in an area long enough and are aware of what's going on around you, you tend not to fall for estate agents' bulls**t about rampant price increases. This is just to tempt sucker sellers onto their books and frighten would-be buyers into thinking they are going to miss getting onto the ladder. Greed & fear, the old double act!

Thank you Alan. I have lived most of my life in the NW of England too and I agree with your findings. Im now slightly further south and same story exists...if not worse... in Staffordshire and Shropshire. My kids are buying homes homes in the NW, Staffordshire and Shropshire and prices are continuing a downward drift... fact!