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Gold price can top $3000 says star investor
Gold’s 18-year bull run could peak beyond $3000 says the manager of one of the best-performing funds of the past decade.
Markets
A gold price beyond $3000 an ounce is possible in the next few years as economic problems drive demand for precious metal, says the manager of one the best-performing funds of the past decade.
Joe Foster of US based Van Eck Associates runs the Falcon Gold Equity fund for Falcon Private Bank in Switzerland. While the fund is not available in the UK, Foster’s views are borne out by a total return of 438% in the ten years to January 2010.
‘We are positioned for a bull market,’ Foster told investors this week. ‘This bull market has been going on for nine years and it could very well go on for another nine years.’
Renewed worries about the state of the economy mean investors want to put their cash somewhere safe, which has caused the gold price to rise. It currently stands at just over $1200 per ounce
‘I have no problems with the gold price up around $2000 or $3000 an ounce in the next few years, or even higher than that,’ said Foster. Economic problems are not going away any time soon, he says, and continuing financial stress will be a long-term driver for gold.
At the moment he is seeing some profit-taking. ‘The big trade was euro-gold all year and I think that is now unwinding as we reach some kind of equilibrium with the sovereign debt problems - although these could flare up again at any time.’
‘We’re in a great macro environment for gold. We’re in the midst of a credit contraction, the housing market in the US is in very bad shape and the commercial real estate market is also in poor shape. On top of that we have austerity measures spreading around the world. We’re going to get a weak economy going forward, along with deflationary pressures. In that kind of market, investors start looking for a sound currency and they’re looking for gold.’
With very limited sources of supply, he points out, mining production has been flat this year and declining in recent years. It takes a very long time to get a new mine into production, new sources are in increasingly remote areas and environmental concerns and regulatory requirements act as a brake on new development.
‘Even at a gold price of $1200 per ounce, the gold industry just isn’t able to ramp up production.’
While jewellery demand has been weak due to high gold prices – ‘although not as bad as 2009 when it went off a cliff’ – the biggest driver of demand this year has been investment demand, due largely to the sovereign debt situation. Foster notes that demand has been particularly strong from Germany and Switzerland, but appetite is also growing in the US.
Demand has also been driven by central banks worldwide. ‘They have been net buyers this year to the tune of 30 to 40 tonnes. If that holds up, this year will be the first time for decades that central banks have been net buyers of gold.’ The fourth source is producer de-hedging, although this is falling and Foster says 2010 will be the last year when this is a source of positive demand.
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18 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Jonathan Williams
Jul 15, 2010 at 17:03
Where is the objective analysis in this article? It is nothing more than an advertorial by a gold fund manager.... I think the Economist is a more reliable commentator, and comes to very different conclusions.
report thisChris B (Slough UK)
Jul 15, 2010 at 17:12
Anything is possible, although I don't think those in power would like to see Gold do its own thing too quickly (but can they ultimately stop it)? It appears for now the price is languishing around 1200. All the 'talk' is deflationary. Since the summer months are traditionally weak for Gold a sharp pull back is all the more likely. I would think there could be a major low between now and the end of September, although I am reluctant to short Gold all the same! If there is a major dip in the price, then that is going to be a great entry point. Autumn - December see the best times for Gold and I can easily forsee Gold jumping right up during this period. I still see the markets hitting bottom by February, perhaps even sooner. Once again the market fall may be the initial catalyst to pull Golds price down, before reversing sharply back up. Beware the market fall good investors.
report thisjohn brace
Jul 15, 2010 at 17:16
I wish it would hurry up!
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 15, 2010 at 17:44
Advertorial?
Of course.
Is he correct?
Quite likely.
Should you take a position?
Yes--one that is large enough to make a difference, but not so large as to hurt in the downtrends which are sure to occur.
report thisAnonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 15, 2010 at 17:56
The rise in prosperity in the Asian subcontinet-where gold is traditionally the most cherished asset together with the world's distaste for all flawed western currencies, together with little reward for holding them in terms of interest, all makes for an almost perfect storm for gold and in particular gold shares.
report thisAnonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 15, 2010 at 18:45
how many times have i heard this over the last year on this site 5-6?
report thishelpmeboab
Jul 15, 2010 at 19:10
My position is 45% positive over 3 years and I intend to stay with Gold. Follow the facts not fund managers or economists
report thisGeoff Leake
Jul 15, 2010 at 19:51
I confess I'm responding to the title as I haven't even bothered to read the piece - repetitive headline journalism.
I'm a gold bug investor based on the simple premise that producing ever increasing amounts of fiat currency must eventually lead to its collapse and a flight to the only true store of wealth - precious metals.
The issuers of sovereign bonds in fiat currencies (USA in particular) are manipulating the markets of all asset classes to support their value and it could go on for years. I therefore say you should ignore the fundamentals (as much as the logic is staring you in the face) and simply day trade both stocks and commodities as we're clearly in a long drawn-out deflationary bear market.
report thisxxxxx
Jul 15, 2010 at 21:18
Time to sell gold then.
report thisivor burt
Jul 15, 2010 at 22:34
Squeeze in europeav and US ecnmies seem flavour of the next few years, lets have some inflation and enjoy our lives.. Brazil did it why can,t we.?
Politicions have to prove they are cleverer than the last lot .
Money can be printed , Gold cant.
Stick with Gold.
report thisAnonymous 4 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 16, 2010 at 10:09
what is the cost of production per ounce of gold.What would be a fair premium for this commodity free of hype and hysteria.,based on supply and demand.
report thisAnonymous 5 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 16, 2010 at 11:26
Joe Foster's long term view on gold is most probably right. But at the moment he seems to be whistling to keep his spirits up. The price chart of gold in dollars is not looking good- very surprising given that the dollar is itself weak.
report thisAnonymous 6 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 16, 2010 at 11:39
Norseman Gold a company in Australia (NSG) is a company which im Slater recently tipped in the Investiors chronicle he owns millions of shares in this company and he is usually proved correct
report thisAngela Milton-Goodhead
Jul 16, 2010 at 17:48
I read an article recently suggesting that silver was on the up due to lack of mines & the industrial demand. Any thoughts on this?
report thisAlJolson
Jul 16, 2010 at 18:37
To Chris B, Why not just say you are bearish? Do you not appreciate that if the Central Banks are buyers of Gold then this is significant?
Also Gold has not entered its explosive period when all markets top out after a serious and big move to the upside
report thisRoger Savage
Jul 16, 2010 at 21:49
Couldn't agree more with Jonathan's comment above. Whatever your view on gold, this is the worst sort of lazy journalism - publish someone's opinion as fact, who has an outrageously clear vested interest in talking the market up. Straight from the 'change a few words in a press release' school of journalism.
report thisAnonymous 7 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 18, 2010 at 14:41
The Tea Party's captive botnets have been sending what amount to chain letters to anyone they think might be a potential supporter urging them to short sell everything in sight - and apparently, they're already succeeding.
Since markets are leading indicators and have a major influence on consumer confidence, these "patriots" hope to cause another Crash similar to 2008 for the sole purpose of securing the election against incumbents.
This purpose may or may not be a legitimate one. But causing a Crash and a double-dip recession to do it is reprehensible.
Of course, it is not more reprehensible than an exact similar campaign waged by MoveOn.Org botnets in the summer of 2008 to help their candidates - and harm millions upon millions of Americans in the process.
We have to wake up to this vile - and Evil - behavior and do something about it.
Most real people - whether we call ourselves Republican or Democrat, Progressive or Conservative, Investor or Trader - don't make their purpose in life harming our fellow Americans, our fellow human beings.
But script bots and their botnets have no emotions, no morals, no integrity, no decency.
And we real human beings have now become mere pawns in "massive multiplayer games" which have moved out of the realm of World of Warcraft and Second Life and firmly into the realms of stock and bond markets and forex.
Am I being alarmist?
I suggest you Google "forex bots" or "algorithmic bots" or even "verbal sentiment bots" NOW. You will be shocked. Good! Because we ALL have to be shocked to the point we stop debating the wrong elements of Financial Regulation and start debating the right ones - how automated markets run by computers alone are literally destroying this country, this world, and all we hold dear.
report thisSteve Lowe
Jul 25, 2010 at 08:28
Seems to me that if Euro / gold trades are unwinding as the author suggests, and as the summer period is normally weak for gold......then the POG at present is showing resilience at around $1200, not 'languishing' as some would suggest. That suggest new highs as we go into Autumn / Winter.
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