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Countdown to the Spending Review: a health warning

The day of the spending review looms. In the fifth of a daily series in the run-up to 20 October we brief you on the outlook for health spending.

Countdown to the Spending Review: a health warning

The day of the spending review looms. In the fifth of a daily series in the run-up to 20 October – see our other articles on defence, welfareeducation and housing – we brief you on the outlook for further cuts into education.

What must go? Spending is ring-fenced. But it's more complicated then that ...

What is at stake? Our health, survival and quality of life.

The government may not be taking the axe to health spending but some careful use of the scalpel will still cause some pain.

Alongside spending on international aid, the NHS budget – £105.8 billion this year –is ring-fenced. It will get ‘real’ increases in funding for each of the four years to 2014/2015. But a real increase in this context does not mean one that tracks the retail or consumer price measures of inflation, but rather the GDP deflator.

Economists point out that this measure is not as high as the inflation rate experienced by the NHS which faces the growing demands of an ageing population, pricey new drugs, changes in workforce and pay, and the costs of implementing government policy.

John Appleby of health think tank the King’s Fund expects the increase to be ‘a shade short of 1%’ each year.

Damaging ringfence

So this is one rickety ring-fence. Some think it should come down altogether: ‘Ringfencing health will mean more drastic cuts to important investment elsewhere, without the benefit of clear justification,’ David Frost of the British Chambers of Commerce has said, echoing the views of several economists and business groups.

What’s more, NHS chief executive Sir David Nicholson has warned of the indirect impact of spending cuts to social care which could mean the pressure is pushed onto hospitals. ‘Health spending is protected [from cuts] while social care is not, and we need to be flexible about how we use resources, he said.

Others say that ringfencing health was what won David Cameron the keys to Number 10.

And while you’re at it ...

Against this backdrop the NHS still needs to make efficiency savings of between £15 billion and £20 billion over three years.

It faces a major overhaul as health secretary Andrew Lansley seeks to ‘Liberate the NHS’. His plans include abolishing the strategic health authorities and primary care trusts that the previous government established to manage the NHS. Controversially GPs will form consortia to commission care and manage NHS budgets in their areas.

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5 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Nemesis

Oct 16, 2010 at 12:14

I am sure that David Frost has his own private health insurance, but if he or his parents had something expensive like cancer or needed dialysis he would be running to the NHS.

The fact is that more people are becoming diabetic, more people want very expensive cancer drugs, and more people are staying alive on dialysis every year.

Our PFI payments now count for 25% of the budget and cannot be cut, in contrast to previous cut backs when we reduced spending on building maintenance.

We increased our NI payments to provide for this. Lets save money and ditch Trident which we could never use anyway without America's permission.

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Chris Kenney

Oct 16, 2010 at 14:31

Nemesis

Trident is a deterent. The idea is that posessing it means that we will hopefully never have to use it. Can you be 100% sure that there are not people in this world, who would use nuclear weapons against our city`s without having the fear of reprisal.

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martin davis

Oct 16, 2010 at 17:17

Why not arrange a fund, a fund that all major couintries put into, so they can buy a global nuclear deterant.

It is seperating the various countries, ie middle east, asia, europe etc.. but lets face it, where is the main nuclear threat comming from?? Iran, N. Korea etc. so Itally, Spain, France USA, Germany, all club together and place nuclear deterants in some countries, This will ease the overall cost of every country.. We then form a pact, so if we are attacked by other coutries, then reprisal will come from the other coutries who are in nthe gang

This is a cheaper option for all coutries,

We are in bed with America, so why not in a nuclear way? And we are meant to be best of buddys with other countries like Spain, germany, France etc..,. so why not...?

It wont happen, as it isa fantasy idea.. But we dont need nuclear weapons. Realistically if America was nuked. I am sure the UK would send a strike to the attacking country and visa versa

We doont need 2 aircraft carriers either,.Too exspensive!!

LIke an old pair of shoes, lets make do until we can afford a new pair.

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Mikel Nicholls

Oct 16, 2010 at 21:21

"What’s more, NHS chief executive Sir David Nicholson has warned of the indirect impact of spending cuts to social care which could mean the pressure is pushed onto hospitals"

David Nicholson is quote right. We are looking at rapidly increasing demand for Social Care notaby in the area of dementia.

Predictions for Cornwall show an additional 2,000 cases per year. It is also clear that looking at the age profile of Cornwall, only around half the cases can be identified. The effect of greater life expectancy is putting pressure on all aspects of social care.

The criteria used to allocate social care are being tightened all the time in order to balance the books. We now have people looking after relatives 24/7 365 days a year, many of whom have health problems of their own, without any respite or outside support.

Please in your surveys on the effects of spending cuts investigate Social Care

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Pat

Oct 18, 2010 at 12:38

The problem with the NHS, it seems, that the patient is passed from one to another. There are copies of correspondence between various health shops copied to all after plenty of visits to all of them and no specific treatment is prescribed by any of them.

The GP is quick to give a pre-printed piece of paper with name, contact details of these health shops and the telephone number of the PCT. The PCT does not pick up the phone. With a personal visit to the Regional PCT head office, the phone suddenly worked and an appointment was arranged within one week. What happen, another visit, another letter, no follow-up treatment.

Andrew Lansbury, please make sure the GP are vlaue for money, to ensure and follow up treaments, not erranding run rounds with agonising prolonged sufferings.

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