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Can inflation be reined in without a rate rise?
Inflation was more than 1% above target again in August but can it fall - as the Bank of England has said - without an interest rate increase? Economists believe it can.
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Consumer price inflation was higher than expected in August and many think it will be a while before price growth slows. But they believe the weak economy will pull it lower even without any increase in interest rates.
Andrew Goodwin, Senior Economic Advisor to the influential Ernst & Young ITEM Club:
The biggest cause of this overshoot wasn't wheat prices, but air fares and clothing. These elements can be pretty volatile from month-to-month, which gives us some hope that they will unwind next month. However, retailers are saying that inflation in clothing prices will remain high over the next few months and there is also potential for further increases in food prices since the impact of wheat crisis has not yet fully fed through to shop prices.
We remain of the opinion that inflation will fall back from 2012, once a series of temporary factors have fallen out of the calculation. Indeed, the fact that CPIY - the measure that excludes indirect taxes - remains at just 1.4% suggests that underlying pressures remain well controlled.
Scott Corfe, economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research:
Inflation continues to show no sign of returning to the Bank of England’s 2% central target. This is bad news for consumers given that earnings growth looks set to remain modest and below the rate of inflation over the short-to-medium term, squeezing household spending power. Despite this, it seems unlikely that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy in the short-run, given the fragile nature of the economic recovery and the impending public sector spending cuts.
It now seems likely that inflation will remain above target for an extended period of time as a number of price-increasing factors have entered the pipeline.
The VAT rise to 20% in January 2011 will make a significant contribution to inflation next year.
James Knightley, UK economist at ING:
Looking to the inflation outlook, there are some concerns about food price inflation and the hike in the VAT rate at the beginning of next year, but the strengthening seen in sterling should at least help to dampen import price inflation in coming months.
Meanwhile, a weak economic recovery and the headwinds of major fiscal austerity measures should dampen corporate pricing power and limit the likelihood of second-round price effects in the medium to longer term.
Moreover, with the Bank of England targeting inflation on a two-year horizon – it is currently focusing on September 2012 – the VAT hike will have been and gone. Indeed, as it drops out of the annual comparison we are likely to see headline inflation push sharply below 2% for most of 2012.
Jonathan Loynes, chief UK economist at Capital Economics:
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12 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 15, 2010 at 10:04
Sounds like horsesh1t propaganda bullcr@pto me.
The pain will be ongoing. Continued Pay Freezes and costlier food for years to come.
The wealthy (debt is wealth!) buy-to-let landlords get to keep their overpriced assets at bargain interest rates, whilst the asset prices keep the priced-out youth in rented.
Such a cynical and sinister vicious circle.
The transfer of money from young to old continues unabated.
Discusting Thatcherite "I'm All Right Jack" mentality, courtesy of Blair, prevails... even if Brown was seeking fairer society his delusion went much further than anyone could have anticipated. He is a monster.
When will the young revolt?
report thisThe Astrologer
Sep 15, 2010 at 10:30
Anon1 is right. The young are always in debt to an older generation, but now it is much worse than in the past. Inflation will take off sooner rather than later: QE is just another way to also steal from savers and the elderly on fixed pensions.
The government could have saved a packet by giving all mortgagees a grant of 20% of their outstanding mortgages. This would have stabilised housing at a fraction of he cost of directly bailing out the banks. We have paid for the banks/ Iraq/ Afghanistan etc and now we have QE on top. Inflation is going to be massive. The bankers will go and sit in their Bahamas retreats until after the dust (riots) has settled.
report thisRL
Sep 15, 2010 at 10:35
Two ways to dampen inflation.We unfortunately either need to bring the Government budget under control (less spending/more taxes) or we will need higher interest rates. There's no way out.
In the long run spending needs to come under control, so best to do it now.
Otherwise we will have rampant inflation, pound under attack, a bust government, Greek style cuts and a collapsed economy. Thank you Mr Brown.
report thisR.Linger
Sep 15, 2010 at 11:23
The answer must be NO! This is a "King Canute" syndrome. Inflation is already here and hyper-inflation should be pre-empted, as the "wait and see" attitude can be too late as it has been in the past. We are living with economists who appear to have no knowledge of the historical cycle of the economic scene.
report thisR B
Sep 15, 2010 at 11:50
Dear Anon1,
You wrongly assume all buy-to-let landlords are wealthy s***ts.
I have chosen to buy a couple of modest flats instead of risking my modest savings on the stock exchange in a vain hope of drawing a pension annuity. I let directly to tenants who are happy to pay the rent I ask for a pleasant living arrangement, dealing directly with a landlord who treats them in a civil manner and trusts them to care for my property.
I am pretty highly geared on these investments though you’re right – my cash-flow is truly groovy at the moment thanks to low interest rates. This was not the case 3-4 years ago when the rent was not covering the mortgage interest, I was meeting other costs out of my own pocket and rents were falling. I toughed it out then (was fortunate enough to be able to meet my commitments) but I’m not sitting around eating cream buns all day, living off my ill-gotten gains at the moment!
I do a regular job of work too. The investment property is just sitting there in the background instead of my buying Unit Trusts or paying into a pension fund. It will hopefully continuing to fund itself, and in time – maybe 15-20 years from now - allow me to fund my retirement myself, rather than being a burden on the State or the younger generation.
I was not born with a silver spoon in my mouth, have worked all my life and have not inherited any vast fortune. I do not feel I am exploiting anyone– nor have I ever done so. I’m an active member of the Labour Party and will not be voting for one of the Tony Blair clones who have been put up as potential leader in the forthcoming leadership elections.
I find the tone and implications of your posting personally upsetting and suggest that, rather than looking resentfully at those who have achieved more than you mainly just because they have been on this earth a few more years, you knuckle down to whatever work or study you are pursuing currently so you may get on in this life.
report thisChris B (Slough UK)
Sep 15, 2010 at 11:55
The damage is already done, the Quantitative Easing (QE) has assured that, solved nothing and created a bigger problem further down the line. This greater debt will no doubt have to be inflated way by further money printing. Most countries will be lucky to avoid rampant if not hyper-inflation. QE is a crime against its people, an appropriation of wealth that was not theirs. It is theft from the nation's people and will leave the people in poverty, whilst in reality the bankers should be the ones left in self imposed poverty. Too big to fail is the lie our government spins us. Let us never forget that the blame lies with our governments ultimate failures to adequately regulate the banks and manage the countries finances. If the banks are not willing to be separated into investment and retail banks (threatening moves to other countries) then I suggest they should all be nationalised and the division imposed upon them, this would also solve the problem with outrageous bonuses. If these people want to walk from their jobs, let them walk, there are plenty of other people around who never got us into this mess in the first place. Multilateral legislation on banks is needed to impose the banking retail/Investment split. Any nation's bank wishing to be part of the system would have to comply with these requirements. It is no use creating the illusion of prosperity at the cost of the peoples future, how does this serve anyone or the world? The whole system is a sham and it would take countless revolutions to change it (like asking for world peace). Ecomonic chaos will be the result of all this and no doubt many countries people will be returning to large scale riots. It will most likely lead to war. Unless our rogue governments and banks are reigned in, nothing will ever change for the good of the people.
Excessive Spending = Excessive Cuts + Excessive Taxes + Years Of Poverty For The People + Rich Bankers (who should be bankrupt) & Rich Politicians hitting out at and blaming the middle classes and the poor.
The people get poorer whilst the banks hoard their cash and produce nothing. Bankers Bonuses come from the poisoned chalice of the people and are sanctioned by our government hands.
Let the poor, the neady, the weak, the disabled, the old, single parents and countless others suffer and die that banks and politicians might stay rich. Welcome to the 21st century.
report thisjoe stalin
Sep 15, 2010 at 12:09
Chris B you left out "bayonet the wounded".
Curb hedgies punting in raw material derivatives will go a long way to ease input prices and ultimately inflationary pressures.
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 15, 2010 at 12:24
@R B
Thanks for the direct response. I'm genuinely sorry you find my comments upsetting.
I can assure you my thoughts are not intended personally, but I can also assure you that too many young people feel disenfranchised right now.
But your own response does contain something of the "I'm All Right Jack" mentality.
Your assertion that "I do not feel I am exploiting anyone" is profoundly naive and part of what is divorcing the older generation from the young ones.
Amongst my peers there is a genuine sense of rising unrest. All they need is an emergent leader and another shock to the system. They have been disadvantaged enough and are fed up of this exploitation.
You say: "I let directly to tenants who are happy to pay the rent I ask for a pleasant living arrangement, dealing directly with a landlord who treats them in a civil manner and trusts them to care for my property."
If you are as good as you say, then you are definitely one of the better landlords in a horribly unregulated and insecure market which favour landlords over tenants to a disturbing extent. I won't bore you with the number of times I've had to move due to amateur landlord incompetence!
Your recommendation that I "knuckle down" is interesting, considering that the dearth of affordable property and jobs. And whose fault is that? 13 years of Labour rule. Great for you, terrible for the ignored generation to come.
But you're right in one thing: you got lucky through no particular action of your own. The government bailed you out at our (young folks') disadvantage.
If our roles were reversed, I think it is reasonable that I too would have done what you have done, whilst you too would feel as betrayed as I do.
It's just herd-like behaviour. A lot of people over the last 13 years got VERY rich (particularly non-productive, highly-leveraged asset-based wealth). Whereas for the next 5-10 years "us lot" have to pay the price for those riches.
You see, it's not resentment I fee towards you lot. It's betrayal by the Blair/Brown camps and the resultant decade of stagflation and hyperinflation that may well occur (just to take this back on topic!).
So I wish you well in your endeavours with no malice. :-)
@Chris B (Slough UK)
"The people get poorer whilst the banks hoard their cash and produce nothing. Bankers Bonuses come from the poisoned chalice of the people and are sanctioned by our government hands."
"Let the poor, the neady, the weak, the disabled, the old, single parents and countless others suffer and die that banks and politicians might stay rich. Welcome to the 21st century."
A good summary of what fun we have to put up with!! I would add that those who benefitted tremendously off the back of the hyper-houspriceinflation of the last 13 years were complicit with the bankers and politicians. The rest of can clearly "get screwed"!
report thisA Donald
Sep 15, 2010 at 17:34
Well, there is no chance of the Bank of England manager (Mervyn) protecting the finances of this country.
He states that it was ALL the fault of those pesky bankers.
I imagine that if anyone says that they are going to invade this country, we will be told that it is all the faultof those nasty foreigners and that the government could do nothing about it.
If the government is supposed to protect us from danger, why did they not protect us from the financial crisis?
So, in conclusion, no chance of protecting us from inflation.
report thisgggggg hjhjkl;'
Sep 15, 2010 at 18:00
I have no time for all this "winging" from the young. They seem to feel that the world and in particular the older part of the population "owe them a living".
Well I am here to tell you they don't!!!
I worked for what I have and have never received anything from the state, despite the fact that I contributed to it for many years.
Instead of winging why don't the young get out there and make the most of all the opportunities they have, which are the direct result of what I and the vast majority of others of my generation worked "very hard" to provide for them.
There have always been anomolies and faults with the economy in this country and I suspect there always will be, but it is a good deal better than most other places in the world, hence the mass migration from abroad to enjoy its benefits.
report thisan elder one
Sep 15, 2010 at 21:00
Here we go again, characterising the young and old as though they are differing species. The old - who were young themselves once - that are probably reasonably well off now - some even rich - were confronted with similar problems in their youth and they learned to adapt; its called growing up (warts and all). In my experience much of youth today are aided and helped by their parents; some still living with parents at 30 odd years of age; not ideal I know. Most of us in the older generation tend to live in a conservative manner saving something to pass on to the younger if possible; health permitting. Nothing has really changed, both the young and the old of the species possess the same variance of human traits that evidence human behaviour in all its forms, good bad and indifferent. I suspect that there is an element of concealed self regard in the breast-beating about what we are doing for the next generation.
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 16, 2010 at 09:22
Come on folks, get real!
This ain't the kids whinging - you older guys basically decided to not risk your pensions in the stock market, dumping all your savings into one asset, PROPERTY instead!
Result? Property that the kids can't afford. And a broken economy without any jobs as a result of an insane property/credit bubble.
So, ENJOY YOUR PENSION whilst YOUR CHILDREN will be renting FOREVER.
You stitched the market up good and proper and congratulate yourselves on your "smart investment" savvy. You're so clever.
@gggggg hjhjkl;'
"Instead of winging why don't the young get out there and make the most of all the opportunities they have, which are the direct result of what I and the vast majority of others of my generation worked "very hard" to provide for them."
>> No-one's whinging here and you, sir, are another "I'm All Right Jack". I'll think you we ARE making the best of the hand we've been dealt but you can't deny it's a pretty cr@ppy hand. You worked "very hard"? Highly appropriate you put that assertion in quotes - as you left us with no property and no jobs. THANKS!
I've clearly hit a nerve here. I think the retorts of you lot are borne of guilt.
But I'm probably wrong, and I hope you enjoy your well-deserved and guilt-free "ethical" (ahem!) pension!! ;-)
Perhaps a decade of stagflation (and possible hyperinflation) is required to set the system straight... That'll reduce your property wealth to zilch. GOOD.
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