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Anglo Irish bailout to cost Ireland up to £29 billion
Irish Finance minister Brian Lenihan reportedly warned that the Anglo Irish failure alone could ’bring down’ the country.
Markets
The Irish central bank has warned that the cost of bailing out nationalised Anglo Irish bank could rise to €34 (£29 billion) or equivalent to up to 32% of Irish GDP.
The country’s dire financial predicament is exacerbated by news that Allied Irish Bank, in which the Irish government has a 19% stake, also needs to find at least €3 billion by the end of the year.
In an interview this morning in the Financial Times, the Irish Finance minister Brian Lenihan warned that the Anglo Irish failure alone, could ’bring down’ the country. The cost of support for the banks could see Ireland's debt to GDP ratio rocket to 99% this year.
Lenihan is also reported as saying that no country the size of Ireland could contemplate the failure of an institution the size of Anglo Irish and that the costs of the banking sector bailout would push the Irish budget deficit up to a staggering 32% of GDP this year.
Ireland was one of the worst hit by the financial crisis, with an overheated property market leading to a brutal 'home-made' downturn which prompted the government to embark on major austerity measures.
These were being hailed as a success after data showed relatively strong export-led economic growth in the first quarter of this year, but recent figures have shown a contraction and there are fears that the country will return to recession.
Anglo Irish has already received some €22.9 billion from the state since its nationalisation in January 2009 after a raft of toxic debt write downs, primarily from the collapse of the Irish real estate market.
In total Ireland has already paid out €33 billion to bail out Irish banks and building societies.
While many were expecting the bad news from Anglo Irish, the market was not expecting the need for additional capital for Allied Irish.
Irish central bank chief Patrick Honohan said: ‘Today’s announcements take the Irish banking system closer to a final resolution of its restructuring, which is prerequisite for sustained economic recovery.’
The cost of holding Irish 10 year debt compared to German bunds has already hit a record 449 basis points earlier in the week.
Last month ratings agency S&P cut Ireland’s credit rating to AA-, the country’s lowest level since 1995, following rival Moody’s, which had already cut the country’s debt from Aa1 to Aa2 in July.
Both cited concerns over the cost to Ireland of restructuring its stricken banking sector.
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22 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Rodney Magowan
Sep 30, 2010 at 10:14
perhaps they should have stayed in the UK?
report thisKENNETH WEBB
Sep 30, 2010 at 10:18
It might even bring down THE EUROZONE & then all the unemployed IRISH people who are allowed dual nationality will come to the UK & sign on for benefits.
The whole fiasco is a disgrace & an affront to the solid hardworking responsible citizens of EIRE many who will now see immigration as their only viable option.
GREED & MORE GREED FROM INEPT & WEAK POLITICANS & BANKERS ON STUPID SALARIES
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 30, 2010 at 10:32
Why was the market not expecting AIB to need 3bn by the end of the year? That was always the dealine set following the PCAR in March.
The actual story if your interested in reporting it is that they need an additional 450m to cover the increase NAMA haircut and are struggling to sell off their UK & US assets in time.
report thisAnonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 30, 2010 at 10:35
It is the Republic of Ireland or Ireland not normally known as Eire anymore.
report thisAnonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 30, 2010 at 10:47
never mind the name - a great pity the peoples of the British Isles had not all stayed together and had a 'federal' government with the power to have the same controls on bankers as Canada, Australia, NZ etc.
why were the awful pair Balir and Brown so cozy with these bankers?
report thiszbmag
Sep 30, 2010 at 10:48
Give them a chance we are all in this together!
report thisAnonymous 4 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 30, 2010 at 10:59
Flippant comment
Uk Massively overcrowded with housing shortages. Irleand hugely underpopulated (denistiy) and in massive debt. Currently has ghost housing estates and enough residential stock that could not be filled at current levels until about 2060.
They are seriously talking of demolishing some of these homes as it is more cost effective than maintaining them!!
Solution: Ireland charge a premium to take on immigrants from EU states with a housing shortfall. Ireland recieve one off payaday and new economy created to serve these new communities. EU states reduce their benefit burden, every body wins
Yes I have conveniently glossed over all the other social problems this would cause/need addressing but you never know it could work?
report thisAnonymous 5 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 30, 2010 at 11:08
TBH the anglo thing is a sideshow. The real problem is the Irish Government is spending €50bn a year and only taking in €30bn in tax. That's unsustainable and there's no political appetite in any party here for any kind of reform or to slash public spending and take on the public sector unions. So I reckon it's only a matter of time before we'll need help from the IMF, the only thing that's prevented that already was that we were able to prefund this year's EBR while everyone was worried about Greece.
report thisAnonymous 6 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 30, 2010 at 11:25
Gordon Brown is kicking around somewhere trying to be useful and rather than just advising Africa how to get out of bust economic conditions he can perhaps at the same time advise the Irish government.
report thisRose G
Sep 30, 2010 at 11:25
The banking industry has caused the problem, let them resolve the issues they created, or go bust.
Whether it is banks in the UK, USA or wherever, let them go bust!
The public services which are crucial for people's well being are being targeted: why should ordinary people be paying for the excesses of this very greedy neanderthals, who have absolutely very little in the way of common sense, but large egos which no one can challenge.
Governments & bankers are both in it so that the ordinary individual looses their jobs, their homes, their pensions, while the likes of Freddie Greedy Banker from hell has his six figure pension plan & golden hand shake!
I am sick to death of having threats that hospitals have to close, or my local library cannot be kept open. Bankers have done nothing for me, except to charge me to keep my money in their accounts - let them all rot in hell for chrissake!
report thisWilliam Phillips
Sep 30, 2010 at 11:33
I like the idea of Ireland, 'Ourselves Alone', 'A Nation Once Again', curing its economic headaches by becoming a multiracial dumping ground for the EU's unwelcome immigrants. Perhaps Sarkozy could hand out Aer Lingus tickets to his Roma visitors.
Doubt if Celtic nationalists would be so eager, though.
report thisTomwise
Sep 30, 2010 at 11:39
Doesn't the British Post Office bank with Irish banks? How daft! How unpatriotic! Can you imagine France or Germany agreeing to its Post Office banking in another country?
report thisD.LAING
Sep 30, 2010 at 12:03
who audited these banks?
Did the FSA check them out before they allowed them to take uk deposits?
There has been a massive failure here not just by the banks but by the controls that were supposed to be in place.What was the auditor doing that he missed those loans that were going in and out to one of the directors?
report thisKev Stewart
Sep 30, 2010 at 12:37
What short memories many of you seem to have. A few short years ago we were all riding high on the credit boom...supplied of course by the banks. But banks can only offer the dosh they can't force anyone to take it. We, the people took it and we, the people spent it. Encouraged of course by the short sighted politicians who can only think of growth as the answer to getting re-elected. We were all swimming in the trough and now we're trying to stick the tail on the donkey banks. The London Stock Market had a new darling called Anglo Irish and we were all told time and time again that if we could only emulate the Irish economy then we would be within reach of heaven......Well heaven is further away than ever for many...maybe we should start looking a bit closer to home for answers.....
report thisphil101
Sep 30, 2010 at 12:56
Nobody is forced to borrow - however if it is made easy for the feckless to do so - they probably will.
BTW - not everyone took cheap finance jiust because it was on offer. Some of us recognised that eventually there would be an unstainable credit fueled bubble which would end in tears.
report thisDavid Warner
Sep 30, 2010 at 13:57
I seem to recall that Allied Irish was the "foreign" bank which lent Lambeth Council's off-balance sheet company LAMSAT £50m secured on Lambeth Town Hall back in 1986 when radical black lesbian Linda Bellos took over as council leader from the surcharged and disqualified "Red Ted" Knight.
Looks like Allied always liked a walk on the wild side - and unfortunately the Irish people are now having to pay for their bankers 'indiscretions.
report thisTony. G.
Sep 30, 2010 at 13:58
Theres a shortage of housing in England,so why not come to an arrangement with
the Irish gov. to sell or rent housing to people from the U.K. untill things get better
iover here.
report thisAlan Gent
Sep 30, 2010 at 16:09
Don't worry U2 will bail them out - oh no, I forgot, they don't pay tax either! When WILL these finance people wake up??????
report thisCharles Roberts
Sep 30, 2010 at 17:48
Does nobody understand the difference between "immigration" [into a country] and "emigration" [from a country] ? At least two of the above commentators obviously do not!
report thisVictor Meldrew
Sep 30, 2010 at 19:58
"Doesn't the British Post Office bank with Irish banks? How daft! ..."
Tomwise, I couldn't agree more, although I don't know their present arrangements. I had some bond paying 7%-ish with the PO and got a letter saying they'd switched to some Irish bank, which was wonderful for customers as the Irish government had guaranteed the banks 100%. I was quite relieved when it payed up. I don't mind risk, but not for 7%, and the current rate will be much lower.
report thisRose G
Oct 01, 2010 at 08:51
The banks have already been bailed out - if these were ordinary businesses, government do nothing about badly run businesses going bankrupt.
We should not allow this industry to hold governments to ransom, but obviously, there seems to be no way a government can say to them, go bust!
Whether or not the banks are bailed out with more public money is neither here nor there - what bugs me is that ordinary job public seems to be the one that is actually paying the price for other people's foolish investment - I have never been a fan of banks, but with this latest calamity that is facing all ordinary workers, who do not get millions in bonuses, or 6/7 figure pensions pots - why is this money not being recuperated from the CEO, & the others who reaped the benefits of poor investments?
I believe it is unethical that joe public is faced with having his pension reduced, faces job cuts (whether this is in the health service, police service, transport) we need nurses & doctors, police, bus & train drivers - we do not need the leeches who believe they are immune from the law.
If joe public had done something similar, he would be facing a jail sentence - when you are a banker, you get public money!
This insanity is only going to continue into the next few years - no one can guarantee that all the toxic debts have been removed - giving the banks carte blanche to carry on with this behaviour does not seem to be the right thing to do. When someone does something wrong, society expects the wrong doer to be punished - but not if you have untouchable status!!!
Were it not for me being a pacifist, I could see myself taking to the streets, & even burning an effigy or two, or razing a bank or two, to the ground - dust to dust seems a fitting end!
report thismeir leshem
Oct 02, 2010 at 18:43
Note
At the end of the day , it will be the greek type bail out financed by German money and IMF
implementation of austerity measures which mean budget cuts will ruin the working middle class.
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