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Accountancy firm backs call for Bank action as economy freezes
Accountancy firm BDO has backed calls for the Bank of England to pump an extra £50 billion into the economy which it believes will tip back into recession next year.
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Accountancy firm BDO has backed calls for the Bank of England to pump an extra £50 billion into the economy which it believes will tip back into recession next year.
BDO's latest Business Trends report forecasts zero economic growth in the first quarter of 2011, followed by a second quarter of negative growth.
The business adviser's Optimism Index also flags up recession with UK businesses' confidence achieving a reading of 91.6 last month, down from 93.1 in August. A score below 95 represents recessionary conditions. The index's current level is the lowest since the deepest part of the recession in May 2009.
Peter Hemington, BDO partner, said its growth forecasts were worrying as they clashed with the government's projections of 0.5% and 0.6% economic growth in the first two quarters of 2011. The government is using its figures to underpin next week's comprehensive spending review at which steep spending cuts are set to be announced. If the economy is more fragile than officials think, retrenchment could delay growth for many years, BDO warned.
Hemington said, 'the balance of risks has clearly changed since the election and the chancellor would be wise to consider whether he can go slower than planned with cuts.'
Hemington said he backed Adam Posen (pictured), member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, who last week called for a new injection of quantitative easing and we believe that he is right. '£50 billion has to be injected in the economy before the end of 2010 to stimulate the growth we so desperately need,' he said.
According to this weekend's Financial Times the chancellor George Osborne has given the Bank go-ahead to mount a second round of 'quantitative easing', which saw it inject around £200 billion into the economy last year by measures such as buying back government bonds. The debate has huge political ramifications. Alan Johnson, Labour's new shadow chancellor, said Osborne's stance showed that the economic situation was more precarious than the government had admitted and cast doubt on its plans to take a deep and fast approach to public spending cuts.
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5 comments so far. Why not have your say?
joe stalin
Oct 11, 2010 at 10:37
The fact that even one of the top accountacy firms does n't have a clue of what is needed to stimulate our moribund economy is yet another example of the fact that it is a futile excercise to look to those that are supposed to know what to do is a complete waste of time. The BOE can pump as much liquidity into the system as it likes, it will make absolutely no difference whatsoever. It will make more money for the likes of PIMCO who are only too happy to see any more fuel added to an already overheated bond market. The answer is obvious -reduce tier-one capital requirements for the banks to more reasonable levels and stop ill - researched political interference in the financial sector. Time for the politicos to move on to something more worthy of their intellectual prowess such as immigration or asylum seekers and how we are going to reducing the funding requirement for public sector pensions.
report thisAlan Tonks
Oct 11, 2010 at 12:10
Well I wonder why BDO would like more funny money from the not very funny comedians at the Bank of (forgeries) England. Where turning out funny money is King and Mr Bean’s Teddy is Deputy Governor, so really what can you expect.
Quantitative easing is just for fools, who really cannot understand even the fundamental economic principals. It is built on nothing and it will collapse easier than a house of cards. But let’s be in no doubt that some people will benefit from this, but it will not be the economy or the British people.
report thisHotrod
Oct 11, 2010 at 12:19
My understanding of the distributive effect of quantitative easing is somewhat different from the author's
Mr Lumsden states that the BoE "bought back" Govt. Bonds? I presume he means the the BoE bought previously issued bonds and cancelled them. If so from whom?
What I think happened was that the BoE pumped money into the clearing banks with strict instructions that they were to use the money to buy tranches of new Govt. debt as and when they were issued. The reason being that if they did not there would be no other takers.
The major banks got their cake and ate it so to speak. They didn't have to use their own cash to buy the bonds, but now that they have them, they can demand regular coupons until maturity.
This enabled the banks to rebuild their balance sheets and got the Govt. off the hook. Until the next time. That next time is coming omenously close, and with the market for bonds in an even more parlous state, it looks like the BoE is going to have to pull the rabbit out of the hat one more time.
The only way quantitative easing has stimulated growth is by devalueing the currency. So in real terms we are still not getting anywhere, just turning the treadmill that bit faster.
report thishelpmeboab
Oct 11, 2010 at 12:46
well said Mr Tonks I agree with everything you say. Printing money is the road to ruin.
report thisOrlando Furioso
Oct 11, 2010 at 20:35
I think more QE is just a recipe for people like Philip Green and his ilk to engage in yet more A&M activity, at a few £billion a deal. That's where all the money goes - and up to 3% commission to the banks, of course. There's not much left over for taxpayer who might need a mortgage or some other reasonable loan service. When you look at things dispassionately, Hector Sants latest ill-thought through idea which, it has been shown, will effectively shut down most mortgage lending, then just allows more money to be available for the banks to chuck it around in A&M deals. I guess they feel they need it now, with oil rich Arabs from Qatar et al coming along to buy up whatever remaining bits of the UK's business base is still profitable. These big accountancy mouths should do something useful, like work out how much money is washing around in A&M deals and how much it is costing the nation in interest payments. Ultimately, it's always the customer who pays the interest, in higher prices charged for goods and services. Come on, Peter Hemington, I challenge you to work it out and let us know. Good man!
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