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RBS: Dead man walking or a going concern with good prospects?

By Deborah Hyde | 11:14:03 | 06 November 2009

Stephen Hester admits it is going to be a long hard slog to resuscitate the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Speaking to journalists this morning he said he doesn't regret taking on what many see as a thankless task.

‘The release of our third quarter results today provides a timely reminder of why we are confident that we can restore RBS to standalone strength whilst serving customers well. Along the way we must also restore strong profitability and sustain a successful commercial spirit at RBS, without which value for all shareholders and a profitable exit for the UK taxpayer is not possible. 

Admittedly, there is a princely sum at the end of his adventure if he manages to reach his goal and return the business to profit and pay back the taxpayer with interest. 

But even he admits the going is tough, the journey ahead is long and drawn out and ultimately the fate of the group lies in the hands of the government and the market.

After Tuesday's news that the bank will be forced to sell businesses it wanted to keep hold of, Hester said he once again has to revisit his forecasts.

The update is due in February.

He says he will do all he can to find ways to offset the risk to earnings but it is clearly going to be a struggle not to revise down forecasts.

RBS shareholders - who have been stung over and over again what with the £12 billion rights issue just six months before the share price collapsed - are a determined lot.

After the misery of the collapse of Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley et al they understandably want Hester left alone to get on and try and reward their loyalty.

But today's numbers show losses on earlier lending are still piling up - although the rate is flattening off - and demand for new borrowing is weak.

There are some parts of the business that are looking reasonably health. The core businesses made more than a billion pounds of profit. 

Others, though, seem more like a withered limb with little chance of recovery.

And Hester agrees the recent punitive penalties imposed by the commissioner mean the bank's staff is going to struggle to get everything done.

After all, the bank needs to trim staff, trim branches, increase lending, grow profits, restructure and - all the while - prepare the insurance business for flotation and look for buyers for other non-core assets.

With bonuses on hold for all but the most lowly paid, and staff wondering whether it might be time to jump ship, is there just too much to do?

There are signs that Hester isn't the only person who has any faith in the group.

Deposits are growing, mortgage lending is still on the rise and the group's corporate business is doing a fair trade.

Shares are up today after losses this week but remain 40% below highs just shy of 60p earlier this year. They must climb 500% to get back to the 200p level shareholders paid at the time of that £12 billion rights issue.

Can Hester succeed? Are you holding on to your shares or even adding to your holding? Or have you given up the faith and hoping to sell?

Comments (5)

RO - RBS has a future

15:07 | 06 Nov 2009

The Royal Bank of Scotland up until 2008, was the 4th biggest bank in the world.

Its assets are more than doube the GDP of Britain.

RBS has a future because RBS matters - for Britain and for the wider economy.

I wish Stephen Hester and the rest of the bank all the best for the future and look forward to seeing it return to standalone strength.

Martin - Future, yes - but unexciting

15:36 | 06 Nov 2009

I think Hester will pull it off, and I am holding on to my shares, which I have averaged down quite a lot already. The question really is what sort of future will RBS have. I suspect it will ultimately have a large, UK based, branch network with lots of personal and corporate customers, but shorn of most of its overseas and investment banking operations.

It will be safe, but unexciting - pay dependable dividends and be one of those stocks we all have in our portfolios but hardly ever check the SP of.

iain - In for a penny?

16:14 | 06 Nov 2009

I read some time ago that when the share value reaches 50.4p then HMG will reap £400 million for each 1p gain therafter. If this is correct then it is easy to see where the 70p initial target comes from. Why then all the fuss? Let HMG et al get on with the job of improving the economy, let SH and RBS Management get on with making profits

and the rest of us do an honest day's work every day. Stop tinkering! Just do it! It need not take long.

alan

18:27 | 07 Nov 2009

I am holding, but like many investors they will not support future rights issues. Once bitten..

The biggest risk is the regulators and short sighted government. Short term they should focus on health and break up later. Breaking up now will reap less profit and more pain for everyone. I would also favour break ups by listing companies rather than flogging them to others that way shareholders can get shares in the separate companies that may outperform the larger entity. Unfortunately again I think it will be sold out to private equity and others will reap the rewards, such is the financial incompetence of the current government

Harish Patel - RBS will live for ever

17:23 | 13 Nov 2009

I have full faith in Hester and he will

make RBS a strong profitable bank within 4 to 5 years. Hold on.

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